When EU achieved the 3300 level, its been contained in a dead neutral zone hence the reason for its 100 pip range bound movement over the past 9 trading days. The dead neutral zone is the 50% confidence interval zone drawn from the 2800 to 3800 95% confidence interval parameters around Jan 1st. At 1.3300, 500 hundred pips separates the upper and lower boundaries of the range and leaves our EU stuck dead center. When EU hit its 1.3044 lows Jan 4th?, it didn't have a choice but to bounce from the lower end of its range. Couple this dilemma with buying of EJ, E/CHF, E/CAD and EUR/GBP and we have a questionable circimstance as to where the next move may be heading. I've performed my own tests to share since I see many as well as myself have to look deeply for our answers.
I began by taking EU monthly averages each month since last May and found an average of 1.27733, obviously taken to 5 decimal places for perfect accuracy. What I found was my 95% confidence interval based on this average is found at 1.3351 in the upper end and 1.2194 on the lower end. I don't hold much credence to this lower end forecast. What is important in 1.3351 is it coincides with prior sell points but to where. Well I know longer term based on this average, we are absolutely heading back to 1.3068 and in line with all prior forecasts over the past two weeks. Question is where are we going short term.
Next I took an average of all my 7 averages, essentially I'm comparing Standard Deviations for my full distribution of prices since a Standard Deviation is an average of an average. In order for this distribution of prices to be perfect, prices must drop from the 1.3310 close Friday to 1.3293. Market prices always, always revert back to their perfectly aligned parameter in any price distribution.Yet an excellent sell point is 1.3349 and in line with the above 1.3351 sell price. Further, any price rises are sells based on my numbers as we get more and more overbought with any pricre rises. Possible sell points further are found at 1.3368 and 1.3386 but I don't hold any credence in the 68 nor 86 point hitting. Confidence intervals at the 95% range equates to 1.3472 to 1.2739.
If I take probabilities and ask what is the probability EU will fall between 1.3200 and 1.3300. Well, 24.26% to be exact and not much help. But I see 50%, .5 that prices will fall between 1.3318 and 1.3195. Okay a little better.
Now if I look at EUR/CAD. What is EC, its the same exact pair as EU, different name. Well EC is clear, its heading to the 3100's shorter term to 1.2900's longer term.
if EUR/GBP is any guide, this pair is in wildly overbought territory and is heading back to 0.8225 from its present 0.8394 level.
My own forecasted numbers reveal EU is heading back to 3200's then 3100 and much lower. My sell points : 1.3285, 1.3298, 1.3304,1.3333, 1.3314, 1.3354 Targets: 1.3252, 1.3218, 1.3195, 1.3127 and 1.3064. Hope this helps. I'm in trades generally for longer terms with scalps caught along the way.
I'm Brian Twomey, not in the signal, coaching or any other business so I respectfully ask to please address inquiries elsewhere.