HSBC - "Data is taking centre stage in the FX market as investors seek to understand how far this process of normalisation can go. Under this current period of normalisation, the EUR is benefiting the most but not in the traditional way. The benefit is to do with a reduction in risk and not because the market believes the Eurozone is in the process of a full-blown economic recovery. It is important not to confuse the reduction in binary risk with a return to the traditional pre-crisis world. Data will be key to understanding whether we are on the road to economic prosperity and EUR-CHF is a fantastic bellwether on the progress to normality. For those that want to take the view that the next theme is a move of the risk curve to the left, towards a much more prosperous world, we would recommend to buy PLN and HUF against the EUR. A high risk commodity currency like the ZAR should also snap back from its current sell off. Those, like us, who believe this is just the ironing out of the bimodal kink should look to sell EUR-CHF and be ready for a big reversal in JPY weakness."