How to be a Market Analyst and Get Away With It.

            The most important thing a market analyst needs to do is to ensure that they do not stand out from the crowd.  The sheep will read thousands of articles written by analysts and will often only remember the ones whose analyses were correct.  If you write in a way that stands out from the crowd the sheep will remember you even when you’re wrong.  The more they remember your failed analysis the quicker your sheep numbers will diminish along with your herding career.

            Beginning analysts will often fall into the tempting trap of making predictions.  When you make predictions two things can happen: you can be right, or you can be wrong.  When you make predictions you give the sheep concrete evidence on whether or not your analysis is any good.  One tool employed by many analysts is a “price target”.  A price target gives you a little more flexibility than a straight up prediction because as long as price reaches your target sometime in the next nine thousand years technically, you were right.  When formulating your price target you first want to see what other herders are saying.  If say for Eur/Usd the range of price targets you find for other analysts are from 0.95 to 1.15 you want to keep your price target within this range.  Even if you have some strong analysis to set your price target at 1.30 you want to keep it at 1.15.  If you say you have a price target of 1.30 you’ll stand out from the crowd and if Eur/Usd goes to 0.80 you’ll look like a complete idiot and your herding career will be over.

            The title of your article is the first thing your readers will see and will need to draw them into reading your article.  The title should never be something giving direction or relate in any way to your price target or predictions.  A good title could be a question.  Make it a question that both those without a position and those with a position could want answered.  Another title strategy is to use vague words like “risk, threat, caution, could, might”.  Overall the key thing you need to remember when writing a title is the same as the body: avoid concrete statements that give the sheep evidence that your analysis is wrong.

            When you begin your article you want to herd your sheep into trusting that you have been “in the know” and can explain past moves and will be able to predict future ones.  Always give a lengthy commentary on what has happened in the market and show how, with your knowledge you knew what was going to happen.  You will also want to convince your sheep that you are far more intelligent than them and have done thousands of hours of research.  You don’t have to provide any proof that you are more intelligent than your readers just use some obscure fancy statistics such and forward rates, yield curves, margin debt of commercial institutions trading vertical option strategies.   Just remember you want to get the sheep with half their brains shot out reading your articles not the ones who may escape.

            In summary just keep it vague and obscure.  Don’t answer questions.  Just keep posting obscure and vague statements that make it seem you are highly intelligent and that anything you have written is worth a read.  It certainly helps if you have any books to sell as well.

            Good luck on your herding career,

-          Sergeant Meowenstein

Views: 240

Comment by K.M. Mamunur Rashid on April 19, 2015 at 6:53am


Comment by Marius Ghisea on April 19, 2015 at 11:25am

Good article Sergeant.

btw i have and i continue to hire analyst against crowd.

If you thinking against crowd means you are special in your job.

Crowd always make mistakes

Comment by Rock Hard Financial on April 20, 2015 at 12:55am

hahaaa hope you enjoyed my sorry attempt at satire.  Well Marius of course there's a difference between someone who's hired to do research for you and someone who wants to sell their herding skills to as many sheep as possible.

Comment by Rock Hard Financial on April 20, 2015 at 2:17pm

Thanks dao, I haven't seen consistent analyst behavior in relation to price action.  It just thems that after a big fall their all bearish and after a big spike they're all bullish.  It's not the same as retail position ratios.  

Comment by Split~ on May 3, 2015 at 11:05pm

Hmmm Sheeples 


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