Hi all,

We had to do this exercise at the MTA, and it was surprising how many correct Elliott wave counts we could come up with.

If you feel like trying, take the picture, label the waves and upload it to the thread again.

Please, don't use the fact that there are more than one possible count to tear down Elliott- it's long time he passed away and it's our time to evolve the theory.



Views: 1339

Comment by gunes unver on April 26, 2012 at 5:35pm

If looked upon directly i can tell this graph shows no elliot formation, 

This graph probably has been bullish "before" from the starting point, so it is not appropirate to analyse such, or fit for trading, in an environment where you can see as far as 1990's.

Finally, this looks like altogether as a "mid section" of a major wave, so i would rather say that i see zero elliot formations in it until i am able to see the bigger picture.

Comment by No more on April 26, 2012 at 7:20pm

Yes spiro it's true in Ukraine its possible, specially in Kiev...

Comment by James Rolain on April 27, 2012 at 3:56am

Idk about Rabbit Ears Gissa . . . but I see a couple other animals ;P 

Comment by nidhi mistry on April 27, 2012 at 6:30am

Comment by Ian Copsey on April 27, 2012 at 6:35am

From my perspective there is no way there is even one completed 5-wave move higher. However, you will have to understand that I feel that there was a misjudgment in the impulsive wave structure and that Waves 1, 3 & 5 develop in groups of 3's (i.e. ABC). It is within the groups of 3 that wave relationships lie. There are no failed fifths and no extended waves. All impulsive moves hold the same structure.

You will also find that when this structure is used alternation takes on a completely different perspective and within Wave (i) and Wave (iv) the sum of the two retracement ratios will more than not fall between 80% and 120% - in a strong trend, less than 100%. This is the reason that the chart does not display a completed 5-wave move. 

Also, within Harmonic Elliott Wave there are common projection ratio clusters for Wave (iii) and Wave (v). There are also common ratios for Wave (c) projections. Hence throughout the wave degrees there must be common targets generated - i.e. For Wave (iii) you will get a projection of Wave (i), a projection in Wave (c) of Wave (iii) and within Wave (c) there will be a projection in Wave v - all must confirm the same area.

IF this is impulsive and the ratios fit then this would be a possible count (I note no values are given which damns Elliott Wave from the start...)

However, if the relationships do not show impulsive relationships then this would be a corrective move and likely to be:

Accurate projection forecasts are without doubt possible. Unfortunately traditional EW has allowed itself to be used in a manner which allows so many counts that make it a lottery. 

Good trading

Ian Copsey

Comment by Ian Copsey on April 27, 2012 at 7:45am

Hi Keith

Well, I taught myself EW about 22 years ago and did ok but rarely identified stalling points with great accuracy. I couldn't get the projection ratios normally quoted to work, never knew when a wave would extend, how many times it would extend and so everything was approximate and mostly retrospective. I couldn't stand that. I see even EWI now declare it's not a forecasting tool which frustrates as that's what it should be.

So around 5 years ago I decided to work backwards and observe where the wave relationships lie and I realized it was in and between the 3-wave moves that regularly saw repeated relationships and it all grew from there until, as I started writing my book the whole concept of fractals throughout became clear. As I've worked with it more and more I've seen so many logical things that are normally missed in standard EW and that's one of the things I like most about Harmonic Elliott Wave. There just so much more logic. On top of that, when you get the right structure the accuracy can be to the point. Of course, there are always challenges, particularly in FX because of the sheer noise and the speed of the market. Equities are slow and cumbersome in comparison but give time to adjust and analyze.

The real benefit of applying ratios to the structure is the discipline it affords and avoids what I call "fantasy counts" that are just not realistic... It can be hard work but the discipline is worth it and what's more, in many cases you can spot when things are breaking down.

As for the instrument - its the one Gonçalo was given so I have no clue and to be honest it looks made up. However, it does really matter. The wave relationship clusters are repeated right from the 1 minute market through to the monthly... 



Comment by Gonçalo Moreira on April 27, 2012 at 7:56am

Quite a few constructive answers! Amazing insights Ian provides with his interpretation: ratios and confluence of levels for confirmation. Very interesting.

Also liked the Gartley patterns James found in his count- good eye!

Nidhi and Keith, just one point: your 5 of 3 is a 3 wave count, where traditionally it should be a "five", but thanks also to your input.

While the traditional Elliott theory has a lot of guidelines, there are only a few rules the below count tries not to violate:

- Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1
- Wave 3 is never the shortest (but not necessarily the longest)
- Wave 4 never enters in wave 1 territory

Useful observations we can extract from this hypothetical count:

the absolute high is not the end of an impulsive move but part of a correction. While corrections suppose net corrective move in price, its boundaries may exceed the absolute Hs or Ls. Why is it important? Well, when calculating Fibonacci retracements, for instance, you may want to anchor the tool not at the absolute H or L, but on the orthodox end of the impulse. The absolute H or L may be a spike derived from forced liquidation, that is not really buy and sell activity.

So, even if you don't use the theory in it's traditional form, there is a ton of information you can get when studying wave personalities and relationships. It's not a matter of agreement like someone said in the beginning- why should I need agreement with other people using waves if I'm trying to compete for money?

Comment by Ian Copsey on April 27, 2012 at 9:27am

Hi Keith

If you have time as it's quite long, take a look at the introduction video: 

as it explains how the ratios work and how to apply them. While the final forecast is in the S&P note that I recorded the video on the 18th September and from the reasoning you'll know I knew the target much earlier...


Comment by Ian Copsey on April 27, 2012 at 12:28pm


I hope you don't mind me jumping in. I'm sure  Gonçalo will have his thoughts too. However, from my experience I know some traders who make good profit from my analysis while others will lose from the same analysis. 

What's the difference? First, the most profitable have their own views and use an analyst as a confirmatory signal. You should also understand the analyst's style. That way you can tell when the analysis breaks down. In terms of Harmonic Elliott Wave, it's basically like a coding language and far stronger than traditional EW because of the adherence to ratios. By understanding the coding you know when things are going right and when they're not. 

Elliott Wave - of any hue - is not a trading system but an indicator. You must understand other technical analysis methods and integrate them with the analysis. Always, always use trade set ups at suggested trading areas. 

In this way you can actually make money using the analyst's views when he's right and when he's wrong - because you'll know when he's wrong... 


Comment by Gonçalo Moreira on April 27, 2012 at 1:03pm

Spiro, the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll is designed as a sentiment tool. Sentiment, for analysts, is the net amount of any group's players optimism or pessimism reflected in market price- a collective emotion, so to say. These forecasts are not to be confused with trading signals or recommendations, nor are they analytical reports accompanied by available evidence.

Being nothing more than a poll, the raw data is free for the visitor to be used as an indicator of contrarian opinion, if you wish. We just provide an average of the levels, but you are free to calculate other measures of central tendency; you mar plot these against price or price change and look for correlations or regression analysis. I was surprised at the amount of information you can extract from the poll. The value of the poll is the fact that most of the people participating have a great influence on many other players.

Any more wave counts? let me see if I can come up with another one...Thanks Ian to bring an off-topic back into the wave discussion.


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