How good are the experts at predicting - EU - Sept 26th -30th 2011 ?
I have always been intrigued by the Experts Analysis Forecasts at the sister site Fx Street. They ask the views of 16 talented experienced professional forex traders for their forecasts for next week, month and quarter on the major currency pairs.
Well this next week September 12 - 16th will be very interesting after what we have witnessed this week and I am especially keen for their views on the EU. I would expect differences even based on pure technical analysis - but not 1000 pips in one week between the most bullish and the most bearish ???
The Bull guys are after 1.4100 - 4360 area and the Bears are looking at below 3600 and as low as 3365 area. The average result is approximately 200 pips higher than were we left it at on Friday - in the mid 3800's.
I am therefore very interested to hear from all members on their own views ( with some explanations) on what they think by end of play by next Friday 16th September. Who ever gets to the within the nearest 25 pips by predicting by latest September 12 close is either brilliant - and I will start following or is extremely lucky and could probabaly not get a weeks prediction that correct within the next 3 years!!.
On a personal view - I have not got a clue - although I will know about 30 minutes before it gets there (lol) and thats why I stay as an intraday short term trader. I do know the trend as been down - but a pullback of 200-500 pips in a week is easy within its realm - although would be stronger at the end of the month if we go lower.
Out of the 16 experts at least 5 or maybe 7 are going to be way out - I wonder who they will be ???
Good trading to you all and have a good week
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Comment by genxtrader on September 11, 2011 at 6:21am -
hi peter, i normally dont take extended outlooks because too much happens in between and im a short term swing trader/rookie scalper,but i cant find anything good in these two charts,but you never know it may not be what it looks like, next week,well you already know what line im looking at.
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Comment by Peter jcp on September 11, 2011 at 7:40am -
Yes - similar Gene- In terms of success probabilities from my own experience and set ups ( geared to intraday) - I find I have my highest success rates on predicting under 30 minutes, then under 2 hours and then anything over 2 days drops well down to what I would classify as gambling. However my probability increase again on pairs when quarterly, monthly and weekly set ups all line up - with the first week of September as a prime example.
Your quarterly chart as made me realise that according to past history - when you get one strong bearish quarterly candle - there will be another one or more to follow. So according to that theory - we should see within the next 13 weeks a price under 1.3600. Also this last weekly candle as been the largest of the year drop and also with the previous weekly bearish candle - we have not had as large a 2 week fall within the year. So that would suggest a pullback next week of some kind and will that end up as the average of the experts calls by the end of next week?- ie in the mid 1.3800 area.. The next question is then - suppose Friday is around 1.3800 - as it got there from 1.3400 - or dropped down from 1.4100 ? - Who knows - meanwhile back to my tick chart and my 5 and 10 pip stops and my 40 pip daily targets for my real money and I will put just a few small pounds (uk account) on higher than were we are this last Friday and then a sell order ( big) under 3600 for sometime in the next quarter. - Unless someone can convince me otherwise ?
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Comment by majimaji on September 11, 2011 at 11:20am -
Hello flat, could you explain a bit more abt the debt?
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Comment by Nikhil on September 11, 2011 at 12:02pm -
Hey, thats an interesting post Peter :-)
In my personal view, the weekly trendline has been broken with a way down which marks the continuation of the bearish stance. So, according to the price action, the trendline could be tested again and I am sure all the bears are looking for price to correct itself towards that area of touching the weekly trendline again and then a boom for a sweet fall!!
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Comment by mcapitalmarkets on September 11, 2011 at 2:36pm -
Hi Peter, I don't need to repost my long term thoughts, do I? Best, M.
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Comment by Peter jcp on September 11, 2011 at 3:27pm
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http://www.forexstreet.net/photo/eu-5-yr-chart?context=latest - hi guys - well I do think on a yearly basis we are going down further as mentioned already ( yes know your thoughts Mauro) but as Flat says we might not know Monday - and then nice charts by quite a few of the other members including Jai, Nikhil,Gene and Keith expect retraces to test higher area first. Most Mondays are slow but with occasional big moves- that can be false - so there could be more time for the market to tease us both ways again first before any nice 100 -250 pip + move. Finally any Bulls looking for above 1.4700 before the end of October ??
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Comment by mcapitalmarkets on September 11, 2011 at 4:52pm
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1.34 is the initial support area. I believe we wil reach this area this upcoming week before a bounce is due towards the 1.36 and than, back down.
Once again, below parity is imminent for the EURO as the buck will gain value across the board. Next bubble due to burst is gold.
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Comment by Peter jcp on September 11, 2011 at 9:25pm
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Yes Flat - into the 1.3500 area with 1.3540 area as another support- got my first scalp sell in but off to bed now ready for the European opens and dare I say - a boring Monday ??
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Comment by Nikhil on September 12, 2011 at 8:04am
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This Monday is a Full Moon Monday.. so beware of the unexpected moves ;-)
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Comment by Nikhil on September 12, 2011 at 8:48am
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Peter,
Honestly, my personal expectations for eurusd pair were to reach 1.67/69 after breaching 1.53 levels when it crossed 1.35 earlier this year. lol.. I guess lot now depends on 1.33/35 zone :-)
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