It is said that people move the markets. Behind the major players such as Institutions/Central Banks/Hedge Funds/Commercial banks/International business houses etc are people. Fundamental news such as unemployment and interest rates are major movers too. Then there is technical analysis and retail traders like me draw s/r levels, trend lines, fib levels, maybe add another indicator or two and try to predict where the market is heading. Now Brian Twomey has added another dimension- Mathematical Analysis. 

So this leaves me confused. If I still do not know what moves the markets, how can I become a better trader?

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Comment by Honest Sarjono on November 12, 2012 at 5:52am

Hi Oasis,

Keep in mind, foreign exchange - trading is how we managing the risk, so.. not managing the profit

Till today, there has been no one  the professors of mathematics can determine the formula to build exactly what position (buy or sell), whenwhere (at what price) and the target.

Facing the market, it seems more difficult than physics formula for determining the strength and range of a nuclear or NASA to the moon, right?

Yesterday, I have put an example how to manage the risk on my trades

Please don't mind our differences, but my point is how to manage the risk by a factor of fundamental, technical and patience.



Comment by ann watson on November 12, 2012 at 10:41am
Hi Oasis,
sam seiden is very good for supplying great foundation information, i would agree with sam that indicators are not necessary and i would go one step further to say that it clouds your judgement. learning to trade is pretty much like learning to speak a foreign language-it is learnt through repetition, study, repetition, observation until you begin to fit the pieces together and you learn to string together sentences-or in trading--understand the twists and turns and have a gd idea where prices are likely to go and why.
Comment by Oasis on November 12, 2012 at 8:58pm

Thank you Honest Sarjono, Ann and Peter jcp for responding to my question. I have been trading live for about 2 years but am sane enough to trade micro-lots. Thankfully after my initial 6 months or so when I lost money, I am making very small gains now. I have read a couple of books and have succeeded in controlling the urge to have at least one trade open at all times. This was my biggest challenge a year ago - how to control the urge to pull the trigger without due process.

I am now at a stage when I am patient, spend a lot of screen time, look at high time frames, try to determine a trend, study candles etc. before I click (buy/sell). However I am still not confident after taking a trade and all kinds of doubts set it rather quickly if the trade starts to go against me.

I understand that there is no holy grail - a method that will work at all times, but I do believe that we all need to have at least 1 method/setup that we look for. If when that setup occurs a quick review of risk/reward potential/ a quick decision and pull the trigger should occur. Then I must have the discipline to stay with my stoploss (not move it) whatever happens. If there is any merit in my method, like Peter (congratulations for a good October) the amount of winners will be higher than the losing trade amounts.

Sorry if all this is rather confused, but I am sure all successful traders have been here. I am prepared to pay my dues and learn as I go along, just have not found my right answer yet. In due course I hope that I will.

From time to time I would like to post my charts and look for your opinions to help me continue my quest (to become a better trader). Hope that you all will assist.


Comment by mario fernandes on November 20, 2012 at 12:28pm
it also toke me some time before I could get the ideas organized in my head. we learn economics, financial analysis, statisctics, mathematichs, currencies and world trade, macroeconomics and central bank policies, tecnhical analysis, artificial intelligence,... how to combine all this knowledge to become a better trader?
I think it is important to know what are you looking for, define a project, explore it with the appropriate tools and try to get the desired results.. if you don't then reformulate the project and start again.
If you want to trade intraday forex markets, the more appropriate tools are technical analysis, computer programming, risk management, and some model building tools like statistics or artificial inteligence.
If you want to trade longer term,like 1 year horizon, you would be better if you combine both technical analysis with macroeconomics.
Comment by Brent Carlile on November 21, 2012 at 2:03am

Hello Oasis,

Markets are driven by sentiment about future expectations, primarily concerning fundamental data such as economic growth, inflation and monetary policy. Technical analysis can explain about 10-15% of market activity/volume in my view. Most retail traders use various forms of technical analysis without enough focus on what actually drives markets as you alluded to cleverly. Professionals become experts at using market sentiment from expectations to profit. My view is that even short-term traders should analyze the global macro environment, not just longer term investors. Just ask a bank or fund trader!

Happy Trading,

Brent Carlile


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