Goldman Sachs - We expect the euro to weaken vs. the dollar

Goldman Sachs - "We have maintained our EUR/USD forecast at 1.38, 1.34 and 1.30 in 3, 6 and 12 months. Our shift to a more bearish view of the Euro was motivated by ECB commentary which telegraphed that easing was possible given persistently low inflation prints. Easing was subsequently delivered at the June meeting which included a deposit rate cut, fixed- rate TLTRO operations and ending the SMP drain. In addition, the inflation forecast for 2016 was revised down from 1.5% to 1.4%. The combination of expectations of easing and its subsequent delivery has caused EUR/USD to fall by around 4 big figures and we believe further downside in EUR/$ should be sustained by the divergence in monetary policy. One push back we get to our EUR bearish view is the Euro area’s strong external balance – namely its large current account surplus and strong portfolio inflows. We do not expect the current account surplus to get much larger and foreign demand for Euro area assets has been very strong since Mr. Draghi’s ‘Do what it takes speech’, therefore it is difficult to envisage an acceleration of foreign demand from here. As a result our thinking remains that ECB easing is EUR negative."

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