Goldman Sachs - "United States Outlook: We expect growth of 2.2% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013. On a sequential basis, growth should settle at 2.0% in 2012Q3 and 2012Q4 before falling to 1.5% in 2013Q1. We then expect a pick-up to 2.5% sequential growth in the second half of 2013. Despite weak growth, we expect the unemployment rate to drift down to 8.0% by end-2013 as long-term unemployment continues to depress labour force participation."
"Key Issues: Our forecast of around 2.0% growth over the coming quarters is supported by factors that should prevent growth from falling further from here. These include strong real disposable income, a gradual housing recovery, easier financial conditions and an end to the inventory drag on manufacturing. However, we worry that the ‘fiscal cliff’ at year-end could potentially weigh more heavily on financial markets and the real economy."