Goldman Sachs - "We expect global growth to improve from 3.1% in 2012 to 3.3% in 2013 and accelerate further to 4.1% by 2014. However, due to the drag from fiscal contraction we only expect the US to reach a trend-like level of growth by 4Q13. Some US fiscal uncertainty remains and the European sovereign situation could deteriorate again, but we see risks as smaller than last year.
Our views across asset classes
Equities: We remain Overweight over 12 months and expect returns to be supported by a combination of a rebound in global growth, accelerating earnings growth and declining risk premia. Over 3 months we downgrade to Neutral as we expect near-term consolidation after the strong gains.
Commodities: We see the oil market as structurally stable, with long- dated prices anchored around US$90/bbl. In this environment attractive roll yields should support returns from commodity investments. Still, the gradual supply response is likely to be supportive for equities by easing constraints on growth and, if anything, a headwind for commodity returns."