Goldman Sachs - "Euro FX Forecasts: We revise our 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts for EUR/$ to 1.40 flat from 1.25, 1.33 and 1.40 respectively. This implies EUR/¥ at 121.8 flat in 3, 6 and 12 months. Current GSDEER for EUR/$: 1.18.
Motivation for Our FX View: Our long-term views are driven by our structural bearish stance on the USD. The weak balance of payments of the US vs the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area still implies a weak USD and a stronger EUR. Following the announcement of the ECB’s OMT programme in September, there has been a strong rally in the EUR due to a perceived reduction in Euro area tail risk. Despite this rally, short positioning in the EUR remains significant and a further unwind could push EUR/USD higher. While downside risk remains in the Euro area due to policy implementation risk and growth underperformance linked to front-loaded fiscal tightening, in the longer run – and after more 'muddling through' – we expect gradual progress with deeper integration in the Euro area, which should ultimately boost the EUR."

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