GBPUSD Weekly Forecast May 11 2015

The weekly outlook in the GBPUSD remains -cautiously- on the upside as long as 1.5350/1.5303 support holds on a daily closing basis, resistance comes at the 1.5498/1.5551 levels. At this point I still expect strong resistance from the 1.5498/1.5551 levels to limit a rise from the 1.5088 levels and bring reversal. However; sustained breakout -daily closing- above the 1.5551 levels will pave the way towards the 1.5676/1.5785 levels where strong rejection is likely!!… If the key resistance 1.5785 is taken out, further upside towards the 1.5940/1.6183 levels is likely!!!!

On the downside, immediate support comes at the 1.5174 levels, a cut would open 1.5088 next, further down will target the 1.4970 levels. At this  point I’d expect strong support from the 1.4970/1.5088 levels to halt any fall and bring consolidation, If 1.4970 fails, further down towards the 1.4912/1.4811 levels couldn’t be ruled out.

In all, as long as 1.5303/1.5354 support holds on a daily closing basis, the outlook in the GBPUSD remains on the upside towards the 1.5498/1.5551 levels where a breach will pave the way towards the  1.5676/1.5785 levels, below 1.5354/1.5303 a corrective pullback towards the 1.4970/1.5088 levels couldn’t be ruled out before the next possible rise.

Support and resistance: 1.4565, 1.4680, 1.4811, 1.4912, 1.4970, 1.5088, 1.5174, 1.5303, 1.5353, 1.5498, 1.5551, 1.5676, 1.5785, 1.5940, 1.6183

Short term trend: Bullish (above 1.5303/1.5353).

Medium term trend: Neutral (above: 1.5053), Bullish (above: 1.5551).

Key data (events) which may affect GBPUSD pair this week:

  1. Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (May). Monday at 11:00
  2. U.K Manufacturing Production m/m. Tuesday at 08:30
  3. U.K Claimant Count Change. Wednesday at 08:30
  4. Bank of England  Quarterly Inflation Report followed by Gov Carney Speaks.Wednesday at 09:30
  5. U.S Core Retail Sales m/m. Wednesday at 12:30
  6. U.S Retail Sales m/m. Wednesday at 12:30
  7. U.S Producer Price Index (PPI) (Apr). Thursday at 12:30
  8. U.S Initial Jobless Claims. Thursday at 12:30
  9. U.S Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May).Friday at 14:00

*All Times Are GMT

Conclusion: The pair trades so close from critical resistance levels on the daily, weekly and monthly time frame, sustained breakout above the 1.5551 levels is needed to resume rise from 1.5088 levels. Immediate support comes at the 1.5353/1.5303 levels, a clear break below that level will increase the risk towards the 1.5000 levels… As usual, keep an eye on the NEWS near support and resistance levels… (Watch out: sideways move within 1.5000/1.5551 range is an option for this week)…



GBPUSD Weekly Forecast May 11 2015

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