GBP/USD (daily chart) as of Monday (10/24/2011) has extended its rise up to the key 1.6000 psychological resistance level before backing off slightly. This occurs within the context of a steep bullish correction that began after price hit its 1.5270 low in early October. The current 2+ week bullishness has risen to more than 50% of the precipitous fall from the August 1.6616 high to the noted October 1.5270 low. Any subsequent further push to the upside that breaks above the 1.6000 level has an immediate resistance target around 1.6100, which is around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the noted 1.6616-to-1.5270 fall. In the event that price pushes even further to the upside above the 61.8% level, a potential new trend change could be imminent. In the opposite event of a downside trend continuation, a key immediate support target resides around the 1.5800 price region.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education