GbP RallY tO FizzLE OuT, GoLD iS uP - ApriL 03.

Yesterday, Euro once again failed to make gains beyond after briefly hitting 1.3380 in early hours of European trading. While it was taking a breather after weak Euro-zone PMI, rumor of Bundesbank’s refusal to honor Greek, Portuguese and Irish bond, which was later denied by the German Central Bank caused more damage to the currency.

Later in US session, after mildly positive ISM data the European currency tested days low, but could not make further gains after testing the support level of 1.3280.

However, today again emphasis will be on European economic numbers, which is constantly on the weaker side. Quarterly GDP number may not upset the market, but today’s Producer Price Index is the data to watch.

Meanwhile, in almost after an hour time Reserve Bank of Australia (RBI) will announce its decision on interest rate. Market has developed a consensus that it does not expect a cut this time, but I will not be surprised to see a slash. AUD has gained on sentiment of no rate cut and no rate cut decision will give further boost to the Australian currency, which will be opportunity to sell Aussies, as market will soon realize the strength could be short lived due to weak economic condition.


Euro @ 1.3344 = I do not see much of change in the market behavior, as Euro should be bought around 1.3310-20 on dips, it should not fall below 1.3290 and has firm protection around 1.3265-70. A break of 1.3355 will encourage for 1.3390-95, where Euro has strong resistance.  

GBP @ 1.0638 = Cable remains a buy around 1.6010 with STOPS at 1.5880, but I will not be comfortable with long around 1.6070-75, as the ongoing rally could soon fizzle out.  

GOLD @  $ 1677,20= Trend is up, prefer buying on dips around $ 1674-65 with STOPS at $ 1670. Break of $ 1680 will pave way for $ 1684-85.


EurO –GbP & GoLD - BiaS on UpsidE ApR 2-6

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Comment by Priyank Nevatia on April 3, 2012 at 3:28am

Lets hope EUR breaks through 1.3385 today. I guess this will be its last attempt this time round.

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 3:33am

Priyank, I have interesting observation to share that after a 80-100 pip rally Euro normally does not have enough legs to make further gains. Today needs to crack 1.3395 for 1.3450’s, which will not happen before USA. But I will not hesitate to sell Euro if seen…..GL

Comment by Syed Rehan Ali Bukhari on April 3, 2012 at 3:43am

Good Morning Sir,  What are you suggest about USD/JPY Sell/Buy?

Comment by Gordon Gekko on April 3, 2012 at 3:49am

Good morning. Thank you.

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 3:53am

Rehan, YEN @ 81.88 = Should hold 81.40 for 82.18 or else 81.10

Comment by Gordon Gekko on April 3, 2012 at 3:53am

Gents, has the India gold strike ended or is ending? I couldn't find new articles yet....

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 3:58am

Mr.Zaid, today is 17th day of protest. But my target is test and break of $ 1704. Gold should stay above $ 1654

Comment by Gordon Gekko on April 3, 2012 at 4:11am

Thank you Mr. Risvi. I know you previously gave an overview of your method of analysis  when I first joined a month of so back. Is there a way that we could quantify this method and learn it pragmatically with due course or does it stem purely from experience and cannot be quantified.



Comment by Priyank Nevatia on April 3, 2012 at 4:19am

Mr Rizvi, I have made the same obeservation in EURUSD. If during the London session EUR does not fall below 1.33, we may see 1.34 when NYC opens. But its critical that it does not fall below 1.3280 cause 100-120 pips is the max I see EUR gaining towards 1.3425-1.3450. I will be shorting EUR at 1.3425 and then again at 1.3450 with SL above 1.3490 for TP 1.3250

Comment by kiko on April 3, 2012 at 4:36am

gold looking strong


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