“In a state of overconfidence or euphoria, you can’t perceive any risk because euphoria makes you believe that absolutely nothing can go wrong”
April 22nd. I’m back this morning after a week away and market liquidity should be back after yesterday’s holiday. Two of the most interesting pairs for me at the moment are NZDUSD and AUDNZD. I am short NZDUSD and long AUDNZD, and therefore short NZD twice! NZDUSD clearly still being at the upper end of its trading range the risks are certainly to the downside. Any close below 0.85 will open the door to further weakness down towards 0.82 in the coming weeks. Any push higher towards 0.87 will likely only delay the outlook for weakness. AUDNZD is back above 109 this morning and has been my biggest win so far this year giving me more than 250 points so far and my stop is well above breakeven. I still believe there is a lot more in this trade and will add more if it hits my level. Note of warning here the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision occurs at 21.00 GMT on Wednesday 23rd and the rate is expected to rise from 2.75% to 3%.
Not a lot going on with USDJPY this morning but my longer term bias remains to the upside. In terms of risks to USDJPY we do have the BOJ Deputy Governor speech in Kyoto at 00.25 GMT and of course any further political uncertainty in terms of Ukraine or elsewhere could strengthen the Yen shorter term.
One thing I notice in spite of the flight of capital from Russia and the perceived escalation of tensions in Ukraine is that the Swiss Franc is not reacting versus the Euro, at least not yet. Obviously the Franc is something of a special case being pegged at 1.20. I have been noticing a series of higher lows and higher highs since the 1.2102 low on March 2nd. The last higher top was by 1.2248.