After bouncing and continuing higher from the pin bar we mentioned yesterday, the 1hr chart on the Aussie looks like the bulls are squeezing out the bears trying to take out the short term resistance at 1.0089. Although the bounce off the oversold lows the other day has the presence of being more corrective than impulsive, the short term picture although timid favors more upside.
We just climbed for 3hrs in a row and the 20ema continues to underpin this pair on pullbacks, with no close below it since yesterday. The recent doji right above the prior close highs at 1.0076 looks like the final presence of the bears being pushed out, thus we are favoring an upside break by early Tokyo trading. Upside targets are 1.0110 and 1.0130 while protection below the 20ema. A breakdown here would need to take out 1.0045 which would suggest more unwinding.
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Global Market Commentary:
Global stocks rose solidly as US durable goods and pending home sales surprised to the upside favorably giving a short term positive note to chew on. The Euro continues to be pressured as it appears another country might be asking for a bailout soon (Slovenia - shortly after Cyprus just did).
European leaders are still at a stalemate with Monti threatening if he doesn't get his Eurobonds (read he needs them to bailout Italy's €1T of debt) while Frau Merkel continues with the Nein Mantra also pushing aside calls from Spain for action as well. This trader doubts the Euro Summit will achieve anything meaningful or substantial and when this doesn't the Euro will be under more pressure.
The DOW gained 92pts or .74% while Crude finally rose above the $80 figure.
FYI a lot of economic announcements tomorrow so expect some strong volatility.
Upcoming Economic Announcements:
|AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)||01.00GMT||21.00EST|
|NZD NBNZ Business Confidence||01.00GMT||21.00EST|
|EUR German June Unemployment Data Released by Federal Labor Agency||01.30GMT||21.30EST|
|GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY)||06.00GMT||02.00EST|
|GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||08.30GMT||04.30EST|
|EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator||09.00GMT||05.00EST|
|USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)||12.30GMT||08.30EST|