EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big players have hit some new stops and bought EUR at a better price. Currently the EUR is blocked below the H4 SMA200 price but as soon as it is broken, our first target will be the resistance area 1.3650-1.3665. Pretty wide and pretty strong one, that will be extremely hard to break, however some spikes to 1.3670-75 are possible, but i think that the price will remain below 1.3665 till Monday.

GOLD still moving inside the negative daily cloud, with a clear 'flag' formation untouched and a great possibility to exit the cloud to the upside. Resistances are 1331 and 1339. Somewhere closer to the second you may try small SHORT, because i expect the price to return back to 1315 soon after the upside is over.

NZD has recorded a fresh high at 0.8792. Daily and weekly are extremely bullish but on H4 indicators show a downside correction has started, so be careful. I think you may try small Short ahead of 0.88 and TP at 0.8740

AUD is bullish on almost all time frames, but some corrections to 0.9425 are possible, the pair is targeting 0.9445 and will try to record a new high, but i think immediately after a new high is recorded the pair will correct to the downside to 0.9400

JPY has chosen the best place to push the dollar to the downside. This is the cross point of Daily SMA200 and Daily negative Senkou Span A price at 101.75. If the price is not able to close back above 101.65 today, then nothing good for the dollar's future here.

GBP - there is no doubt that pound is looking for a fresh high, but do not forget we are breaking the Monthly negative cloud and i think the correction to the downside will happen next month. And till then 1.71 will be the target. You should be prepaired to take your profits from long soon. We are bullish as long as the pair is above 1.7030. If there is any spike to 1.7010 the pair will quickly recover to the upside.

RUB has hit the dollar badly, but seems that bears calmed down for now and i think we shall end this month closer to 34.00 than to 33.00. To start recovery we need at least H1 close above 33.70. Volatility of the pair is low and it is quite possible to remain like this till next week.

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3620 SL 1.3610 TP 1.3650-1.3665-1.3675

SHORT EUR below 1.3610 SL 1.3620 TP 1.3580-1.3560-1.3540

LONG GOLD above 1315 SL 1312 TP 1322-1328-1331-1336-1339

SHORT GOLD below 1315 SL 1318 TP 1308-1303-1299

Good luck!

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Comment by Michel Miles on June 30, 2014 at 3:46pm

Very compliments for your forecast! Very good job!


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