EUR has fully recovered after Wednesday's unexpected drop, currently it is moving along the diagonal support line at 1.3675 and is just above it. We have the resistance at 1.3710, we have all chances to test it today, but this will depend on Germany's and eurozone's GDP and Michigan confidence later today. Any good data for the EUR will boost the upside above 1.3700 and we even may reach 1.3750 if we have a bad Michigan confidence number. It is good to keep in mind that today is the end of the week and pullback because of profit taking is possible. The pair is bullish as long as the price is above 1.3650, otherwise correction will target 1.3590 and below that outlook is bearish.
GOLD is msking the first attempt to break SMA200 i expect the price to bounce back from here because on Daily we have the SMA200 line at 1306, on Weekly we have the Kijun Sen line at 1308 and on Monthly we have the Tenkan Sen line at 1307. So we can see here we have a strong resistance area 1306-1308. However GOLD is capable of making sharp and powerful moves and the price depends on many fundamental factors, keep in mind that next resistance is far above at 1338. I have recieved some questions about what will be the GOLD's next move. In fact i really have no idea and noone has too, but we have a greater possibility of going back to 1300 and below than going above 1308. Where will go the metal will decide the market. You have to remember here one 'golden' rule. If the price goes more than 5-6 USD against your entry, you'd better exit, because in 80% of all cases it will make at least 5-6 more against you. That is why i am placing 6-7 USD SL of my positions.
NZD is bullish above 0.8330, but a correction to 0.8310 is possible, the major support is 0.8280 and the pair will remain with bullish tone as long as that 0.8280 holds. Target is 0.8370-90.
AUD is currently supported by the 0.8970-80 area. 0.8910 is critical for the upside, for now we are far above but on H4 we can see a lack of enough power to go through 0.9020, so if we drop below 0.8970 the pair may try to test 0.8910 support before making a new upside attempt.
JPY was unable to make progress above 102.70 and returned to test the 101.40 Daily senkou span b price. Situation here is quite difficult as the support level is testing at the moment and i cannot determine the direction. Breaking below 101.40 will target 100.20. To restore the upside we need a daily close above 102.30.
GBP has made a test of 1.6650 resistance and even has made a fresh top at 1.6672 we are still at the support 1.6650 but i do not think the price to make any progress to 1.6700 or above, so reverse to 1.6500 is more likely. We have the 24.04.2011 top at 1.6744, but i think this is not today's target.
LONG EUR above 1.3665 SL 1.3650 TP 1.3710-1.3740-1.3770
SHORT EUR below 1.3650 SL 1.3665 TP 1.3590-1.3550-1.3520
SHORT GOLD below 1307 SL 1312 TP 1300-1292-1288-1282-1274
LONG GOLD above 1310 SL 1305 TP 1325-1336 but i am not sure, better wait for next week to come.
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