EUR was quite volatile yesterday but still in a range of 50 pips, market players are cautious before ECB rate decision today and mr.Draghi's speech. We have several scenarios for today, here they are:

1. test of 1.3575 and on fail drop below 1.3480

2. test of 1.3630 after breaking 1.3575 but fail at 1.3630-40 and then quick reverse with target 1.3450

3. tiny pullback to 1.3540-50 and immediate drop to 1.3410 and below

At the moment of writing i cannot determine what of these will be, but i am almost sure that we won't go above 1.3630-40 resistance as above we have some colse one to another strong resistances. If we go to 1.3640 you may sell there it is a good place to sell. As the price is below 1.3580 the pair is inside a descending channel and 1.3580 is the channel resistance (good place to sell) just above we have the Senkou Span B of the positive Daily Ichimoku which serves as resistance too. To the downside we have no significant support until 1.3390-1.3400 we shall meet the SMA200 there (good place for profit taking).

GOLD has made a quick test of 1275 ahead of ADP data yesterday, but then returned back to where all started. If we succeed staying above 1254 for the next 7-8 hours since the time of writing the price may jump to 1275-80 again, otherwise we are going to 1240 and below.

NZD is currently stopped by the SMA200 on H4 frame at 0.8245, if it breaks above the upside will continue. The price is pressed by a diagonal resistance line and SMA200 both, so another test of 0.8150 is quite possible. Break on H4 of the 0.8245 signals that upside will continue.

AUD on Daily is trying its luck at the Ichimoku cloud, however it is pretty wide to break and i expect a bounce to the downside from the current price, but of course there is a little space remained to 0.9000 where the resistance is.

JPY continues to move along with Senkou Span B price on Daily as expected. The resistance is at 102.10 and support is at 100.90. Quite possible is the pair to remain in this range till Monday.

GBP was also too volatile yesterday but still everybody is waiting for the BoE and ECB decisions today. First resistance is 1.6410, then 1.6460,above that the upside will be restored on Daily. Below 1.6290 we are going to 1.6240 which is yesterday's support and then to 1.6210 and 1.6100. Be careful here are reversals are possible.

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3520 SL 1.3510 TP 1.3565-1.3575-1.3595-1.3620

SHORT EUR below 1.3630 SL 1.3650 TP 1.3490-1.3450-1.3420

SHORT EUR below 1.3580 SL 1.3595 TP 1.3490-1.3450-1.3420

SHORT EUR below 1.3525 SL 1.3540 TP 1.3450-1.3420-1.3390

LONG GOLD above 1256 SL 1250 TP 1272-1286-1294

SHORT GOLD below 1246 SL 1252 TP 1236-1224-1212-1200

Good luck!

Views: 955

Comment by kamdi eloji on February 6, 2014 at 9:16am

hi vladmir thanks for your forecast , i need a little advice the EU today and i was just watching bloomberg and they keep saying that the ECB might cut interest rate today does it mean its wise to short mainly on the EU today?

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 6, 2014 at 11:23am

Really i do not know what will be the ECB decision, analysts of Societe Generale also think that it is a good moment for another 15 bp rate cut to 0.10%, but i am not sure about that. Maybe we shall have just another portion of promises from Mr.Draghi for future actions. The EUR/USD is going to slide, the question is with what speed  and will it test the 1.3575 and 1.3630 resistances first.

Comment by kamdi eloji on February 6, 2014 at 11:51am

Thank you very much

Comment by Abdu Rub on February 6, 2014 at 11:58am
Hi vladimir how ECB decision effect to gbpusd pair?
Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 6, 2014 at 12:07pm

if the EUR starts to slide maybe dollar will gain more power and that will influence downside move of the GBP/USD pair, Daily and H4 indicators there are bearish, so there is a greater possibility of going down than correcting higher

Comment by Abdu Rub on February 6, 2014 at 12:15pm
Thank you and BOE asset purchase facility and interest rate decision were positive but it doesn't make much changes on this pair!!!
Comment by Syed Ali Arslan on February 6, 2014 at 2:42pm

yayyy! your thing worked  woop woop :)

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 6, 2014 at 2:48pm

Scenario 2 is in place, still we have no test of 1.3630-40 area but this will be later this evening , and first attempt won't be successful. Mr.Draghi says everything is okay, do not care about the problems, and the pair has reversed. We are going to close the day above 1.3590.

Comment by Abdu Rub on February 6, 2014 at 3:16pm
Thank u sir,
Comment by Massimiliano on February 6, 2014 at 6:22pm
You are a wizard!
Thank you.


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