As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the reversal. We keep the upside potential but the pair will enter in a consolidation mode as the market will prepare for the ECB meeting on Thursday. Any further actions from ECB will put EUR under a heavy downside pressure. While any optimistic speech of mr.Draghi will send the price to above 1.3800. However we have a pretty strong negative Ichimoku cloud on Daily which will stop any upside move, no matter what Draghi says. But keep in mind an upside spike may happen.

GOLD almost escaping the Daily negative cloud but has reached a strong resistance at 1331. We are bullish above 1308, and now we are almost 20 USD above. There is no enough space to enter long right now. However we have a clear 'flag' on Daily and the upside seems to continue. The price may retrace back to 1320-1321 before the new upside move.

NZD is bullish above 0.8750, below that the price will test 0.8720 and the next support is at 0.8650, but right now the bullish move is strong and i do not thing we shall go back to 0.8650. The key reversal is 0.8720

AUD has made a sudden jump to the upside some minutes ago to 0.9450, the price is bullish on all time frames, but 0.9450 is a strong resistance followed by another one at 0.9470, so it is quite possible to have some pullback to 0.9420-30 which is now used as support.

JPY succeeded in keeping USD below the Daily SMA200 and this suggests more downside to come. A quick look at the Weekly shows the price will use 101.10 which is the Senkou Span A price for support to bounce back above the SMA200 this month. Upside may be restored only on a Daily close above 102.20.

GBP is bullish on Weekly, Daily and H4, but on smaller frames it turns bearish. A correction to the downside is going to happen soon. First support is 1.7085, followed by 1.7060 and finally 1.7045. As we are above the last the pair is bullish and the upside won't be affected. The pair may reverse the upside move only on a Daily close below 1.7010, but for now i do not see this to happen.

RUB is trying to keep the dollar below the Daily SMA200 at 34.16. For now pretty successful, the price is in a downside channel and the upper border is 34.50. Just above at 34.70 we have the Senkou Span A price of the negative Daily cloud which helps the RUB to keep the dollar under pressure. It is too early to break the cloud to the upside, maybe we need at least a week or two. Until that we are going to move inside the downside channel between 33.60 and 34.50.

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3675 SL 1.3665 TP 1.3715-1.3725-1.3740

SHORT EUR below 1.3720 SL 1.3730 TP 1.3670-1.3630

LONG GOLD above 1308 SL 1305 TP 1325-1331-1336-1342-1348

SHORT GOLD below 1322 SL 1325 TP 1312-1308-1303

Good luck!

Views: 599

Tags: AUD, EUR, GBP, GOLD, JPY, NZD, RUB, USD

Comment by Muhamad Agung Wibowo on July 1, 2014 at 6:15am

BREAKING: Ukrainian Pres. will not renew cease-fire with pro-Russian separatists, vowing "we will liberate our land." http://cnn.it/1x94zrk >> Will this stimulate gold price to go up SOON, Sir?

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 1, 2014 at 8:17am
I don't know as my analisys is mainly technical, but this is not a global conflict, so who cares about Ukraine

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