FatE oF NeXt GoLD & CurrencY MovE oN US DaTA - ApR 06

Spanish bond was the key market focus that kept Euro under pressure. Market is once again worried about reemergence of Euro-zone debt crisis. Suffering of European bank stock added to the European trouble, as rising Italian bond yield further confirms the cause of investor’s nervousness. Portugal’s bond too is under pressure.

IMF statement on challenges faced by Spain to meet European Union target further nailed down traders mood that also helped in pushing the currency into negative territory.

I think if we take overall recent development of last week and this week, coming US economic data’s will play key role I determining the trend. With no sign of QE3 after the release of FOMC minutes, market will soon start discussing “Operation Twist”, which is the major coming event.

All data’s related to growth and job will be keenly watched for next two-months because any drop in unemployment rate and improving US growth rate could even mean end of “Operation Twist” to counter inflation. Therefore, for next 70-days, all US economic data coming out from USA will be keenly watched by the market watchers.

Thin trading activity is expected as major markets will remain close due to Good Friday. Today’s Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment data will provide further direction and more clues for next week’s trading. However, experience suggests that in thin market condition there could increase chances of market volatility.

 

Euro @= 1.3068 = Euro will struggle to move beyond 1.3110 with risk for a test of support level of 1.3005. Any up move should find a cap around 1.3150-70 zones. Break of support level may push Euro towards 1.2930 on break of 1.2970.

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GBP @ = 1.5848 = There is strong buying interest for Cable, but there is no clear direction about its next move beyond 1.5895 unless resistance 1.5930 makes a clear break. Next level to watch is 1.5790, a clear break will push the currency to 1.5736

GOLD @ =  $ 1629.90 = Today’s nonfarm pay roll and unemployment data could be key to gold’s next move. A good number could depress the bulls. Break of $ 1612 risk for a test of $ 1587.  Test of $ 1545 could be possibility. On the upside Gold has strong resistance around $ 1644

  

GbP uP, GoLD tO CorrecT BeforE DowN - ApR 05

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Comment by sowMa on April 6, 2012 at 4:52am

Hello sir thanks a lot,

Comment by asad rizvi on April 6, 2012 at 5:45am

Jason, YEN @ 82.28 = Basically Yen to remain range bound with weaker stance and selling of JPY will be seen on rise around 81-90-00, but has strong resistance around 82.60. Later if we get good US data, YEN could make sharp gain towards 81.50-60 zones.

AUD 1.0311 = Any up move of the Australian currency should be opportunity to sell around 1.0340, as long as AUD stays below1.0380, risk remain on the down side. It needs to break 1.0240 for a test of crucial 1.0210 levels. Break would pave way for more losses.  

Comment by Manuel on April 6, 2012 at 7:14am

Dear Mr. Rizvi,

I am new to the forum, I was watching your forecasts for some time. Mostly accucarate. I appreciate the efforts you are putting and the generocity to give updates from time to time.

What will be the impact of todays non farm employment change on major currency pairs? if 1) more than 260M or more,  2) Below 160M and 3) Between 190M-220M

I am still holding some long positions with considerable losses in EUR/$, GBP/$, AUD/$ & USD/YEN. Please advise the exit strategy if you have the time.

Thank you.

Manuel 

Comment by Omer Mukhtar on April 6, 2012 at 7:38am

Same story again today i guess, both eurusd and gbpusd trading in a very narrow band. No data coming in as well to add volatility to the market, other than the USD non-farm payroll change, which comes much later in the day. 
Sir, do you see EURUSD breaking 1.30 level in the Asia session? 

Comment by asad rizvi on April 6, 2012 at 7:54am

Manuel, thank you. Well, I have already tried to explain in my today’s note. In short my view is that a favourable payroll will give US Dollar edge over currencies/gold and bad payroll will again provide opportunity to buy USD at better levels.......

About exit strategy to get out with stuck up positions, on almost daily basis I get similar type of mails from traders stuck with position, which is now huge in number. Traders should organize themselves. Stops should be applied as discipline is essence to trading. Humanly it is not possible for me to come up with a strategy for more than 20 traders stuck up with their positions, neither can I give guarantee that I can always make correct calls. Yes, I do my working with honesty keeping in mind that there are many followers. I wish you and all best.

Comment by Manuel on April 6, 2012 at 8:12am

Thank you so much for the propt reply. I will try to become more responsible for my trades.

God bless you and your efforts.

 

Comment by Sumeet Singh on April 6, 2012 at 8:34am

"Very dull moment in the market:("

Comment by asad rizvi on April 6, 2012 at 9:49am

Reports are coming from India that the bullion traders & jewellers could end their strike/protest call after meeting Sonia Gandhi/Parnab and requested them to reduce duty.

My immediate gut feeling is that the two parties, government and gold traders may have reached some sort of understanding that government will reduce duty, which will be acceptable to gold traders. This means that on Monday morning we are going to witness surge in Gold price.....More Later

Comment by Sumeet Singh on April 6, 2012 at 9:53am

you are correct sir.i too feel the same.

Comment by Omer Mukhtar on April 6, 2012 at 10:51am

Sir, if these deal actually materializes, how much do you see gold appreciating by?

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