Comment by Peter jcp on August 31, 2012 at 7:24pm

Always enjoy checking the Experts Forecasts for the following week to quarter period. One question I would like to ask and I don't know whether its part of the requirements - do these guys actually trade in the direction of their own forecasts?

I appreciate they might be looked upon as just a "guide" - but some weeks you can have up to 1000 pip differences between the bullish and bearish experts but with no real reasons explained.

Hats off to them though - there would not be to many periods when I would want to predict up to a quarter ahead. In fact lately not many periods when I would like to predict the next session ;-)) 

Comment by Mauricio Carrillo on September 2, 2012 at 10:45pm

Hi Peter,

Well, Experts, banks and brokers used to provide us with the levels and targets they believe pairs will reach in the mentioned mark every week. But I can not say the way they trade these numbers. The reason is because we don't ask for strategies or signals, just the levels they are expecting and in this line, we can have a sentiment index for the whole market.

Said that, surely they trade according to their predictions, the thing is that they could trade just one position, 10 trade or even 100 positions.

I remember in the latest ITC in June Ed Ponsi saying that if you do trade in top and wait for the bottom, you would miss a lot of trades! It makes me think and it is the same with experts providing levels in the forecast. Maybe they expect the EUR/USD reaching 1.2666 this week, but shall you trade now at long? I'm not sure because I don't know if they are already long now, or they want to wait to see the euro touching this level to go short. The only thing is supposed to know is that market are waiting the EUR/USD to touch 1.2666 this week.

They provide some comments as key actions to be followed to see their levels, but they aren't to be used as signal.

Why? because the forecast poll's original idea is to have sentiment index and to understand the way experts or banks or independents think but not as signal. And you know... experst, brokers and banks already used the estrategies information as confidential and this is the reason we have to pay for their services.

Anyway, sorry for my extended answer, hope it has been useful. And please be free to ask me anything you want, I will do my best to answer your doubts, if I can not do it, I will request appropiated experts for assistance!

Great Sunday, at least it is sunny in San Francisco! our late-summer is comming! yay!

Comment by Peter jcp on September 3, 2012 at 9:31am

Hi Mauricio - yes we have a bit of a late summer in the UK as well - but I doubt it will match yours in San Francisco.:-)

I have seen in the past when you do get an overall view of say a bear move with say over 75% of the forecasters agreeing then the sentiment might be more in line with the actual movements. When you have critical levels  - like now on the EU then I can understand very mixed views with say 300-500 pip differences expected during the week.

September month on the EU also shows a difference of 1200 pips on the the expectations of most bearish expert compared to the most bullish. Now that is a big range differential and I should imagine either forecaster might review their forecast as the weeks progress?

Thanks for you reply and yes you have explained more with it being more of a sentiment index.

Cheers 

Regards 

Peter

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