Comment by talisman on January 8, 2012 at 4:17am

how did you know to sell at 3168 at the time? its easy to see in hind sight that it was a good decision,  but at the time with the market rising on the 30 min what indicated to you that it would reverse exactly on that bar?

Comment by Peter jcp on January 8, 2012 at 10:53am

Hi talisman - Ok - I dont mind telling you some of the tricks of my own scalping methods- as they are not unique - but have been based on years of watching the small time frames and market movements. Firstly I had done a "Lisa" and wrapped above were I had originally thought were the pair would have stopped and so a pending scalp buy was placed above.1.3163. That was based on the fact I was as that time looking for scalp sell under 3160.

Instead just prior to a time frame change - the EU shot up - taking me into the buy. At the time i was surprised as i had not expected the pending order to be taken. My first intial reaction on any sudden movement - is a bounce or pullback the other way ( bouncy ball effect). So I look to grab - what i can knowing i am quite happy to enter again - either way. First rule in short term trading - "have no bias" -

The next part is really were experience and not be afraid to get it wrong counts. The questions I and many other scalpers at the time would ask ourselves -

1. What price are we at or near?

2. Is this now going to go over the psychogical barrier of 1.3200?

3. Is the scalp in profit - is it over 10 pips ?  ( in this case the pending scalp buy had shot up over 30 pips in less than a minute).

4. Whats the time - very important to me - as I do use a stopwatch in scalping- as times are critical

5. What is my tick chart saying ?

I appreciate normal traders would be panicing here - quick suddeen movements do have that effect - But for an experienced short term trader - the answers are all therefore you on your charts straight in front of you.

If I remember correctly I come out the scalp buy that had been activated - as soon as my tick chart shows a scalp sell. In normal cases this is between 3-6 pips lower than an high. I therefore miss the scalp sell at 3194 - but have an intial profit from the buy of  26 pips- and so am happy - and therefore wait for the dust to settle down.

Next question - based on "bouncy ball" effect - will the pullback from the high stay above my original entry postion of 3162 - ie just fall back say 7-15 pips? ( based on normal fib levels from any movement - more than a 50% retracement - shows normally a change of direction) So this sudden spike had gone up over 45 pips from its area therefore showing any retrace with a quick time might make the "bouncy ball" change direction.

My 30 min chart shown above Talisman believe it or not - is far too removed from the action to explain what I was seeing on a tick chart and a 1 and 3 minutes. On the 3 minutes several signs were saying the high more than likely would not be breached again and patterns like H & S and even 123's etc all count - even if normally their strenght might only indicate 7-20 pip movement - not like an H & S on  1hr or 4 hrs which might be worth 100-300 pips. 

Within 10 minutes of the sudden movement - my tick chart 1 -5 minute are all saying sell. I would be next looking for an initial target - based on time - support - volume strength etc etc. Normally my own scalping targets are 7-25 pips within 10-15 min maximum. Also remember I am only using between 5-10 pips stop - I do dont mine being stopped out - I have already made 26 pips so  1 or 2 errors that could could cost me say 10-15 pips are no problem at all. My tick chart is so fine tuned using my own indicators based on linears and Parabolic SAR's and I am so used to using it ( been using it over 4 yrs) it become like second nature - In fact at time is seems so slow to me - whilst other traders are thinking even the 5 minutes is moving fast.

If we do go back now to the 30 min chart above - a clear trendline is broken under 3140 and this 30 minute candle actually drops over 85 pips in the 30 minutes. For a short term trader - this is like christmas and your birthday all rolled into one. Within a one hour time period my system should have bagged me just ov

Comment by Peter jcp on January 8, 2012 at 11:16am

cont - just over 120 pips - but being human - and slow and not perfect I would only be up about 80pips by now - still a lot more in one hour than normal - as normal hourly achievements are under 30 pips.

Next question i ask myself - another bouncy ball - does the pair after the half hr change bounce back up 50+ pips or not? From the 30 minutes charts we can see the candle is a bullish pin bar - but from low to highis under 50 pips. I cannot remember all what i did but from my trading history i did take another scalp buy ( i expected a bounce but did not know the strenght and distance etc) and came out quite happily at that 3104 area

From then on - its all sell territory ( remember I had wanted at the start to sell under 3160 - just based on so many other factors ( OB's - price structure - etc etc) bit in then takes another 2 hrs to drop the next 80 pips- which to me is very slow and so I would be looking at other pair opportunities and be quite happy to stay in sell under 3100 - knowing I then need to reassess if it goes under 3000 - due to daily ATR and then the fact all the smaller frames would then be OS.

With the value of hindsight I realise I should have left part of my stake ( 30-40%) on from 2 of the scalp sells - and the would still have been in trade today - up over 300 pips etc. However I am like all traders - not perfect and will always regret some decisions - whether bad or even good. I am in a swing sell still form the end of October at 4120 - and under 3160 would have been a ideal place to have left another sell on. Trading will never be perfect and although you will have lucky breaks etc - be happy when you dont have loads of unhappy breaks instead

Hope this explains it to you from a short term trader view - quite happy to answer any of your questions Talisman- because I genuinely want more traders to understand the whole concept of how we all trade and how the market works.

Comment by spiro gonzales on January 8, 2012 at 12:19pm

 

Hi Peter ..

You writing skills is exelent as always but a picture telling more then 1000 word ..
If you don`t mind , can can you attach you chart who showing you entry and exit into your blogg . I think that will make it easier to understand you ..

Comment by ForexSchoolOnline on January 8, 2012 at 12:29pm

Nice post Peter!!

Comment by Peter jcp on January 8, 2012 at 12:43pm

Hi Spiro  - thanks for your nice comments. I do save many screen shots of tick charts scalps but as I do normally anything from 5-15 a day - I dont save everyone - and atm I cannot find this one and my history on my tick charts and one minutes charts will not let me go back that far. I am checking my other files just in case and will post when I find etc

Comment by spiro gonzales on January 8, 2012 at 1:06pm

 

Thanks Peter,

I think from a pedagogical standpoint, it would have been interesting to study your trading chart how you trade .. if you example display screenshots from your daily trades, example of the way as I have done it in my blog.
simple and concrete shows market structure ,entry
exit Sl .. The idea behind the entries or more correctly lack of thought behind a trade .. I think in this way  you would despair more informative and understandable to others ..

I think is more informativ to show a longer trading sequence during  then a single shoot .
examples how you trade during a whole day

When I got raked down to Ukraine and I will show my daily trade.,, Unfortunately I'm too busy now to complete my work projects.

Comment by talisman on January 8, 2012 at 2:11pm

awesome detailed response.  a simple question like mine often gets blown off with vague non informative answers, i thank you for your transparency on this one.

Comment by Peter jcp on January 8, 2012 at 4:19pm

I cant find the tick charts set up for the 21st December  in my files ( I have over 500 saved shots- but nowdays rarely take more than a couple per week to add to the records - unless they are exceptional) - but i can show you 3 more small frame charts to explain more.

I have great respect to Lance Beggs - but I discovered him too late and I beleive my methods and his do have some similarities - but I use totally different indicators on the tick chart and small frames and also use a stopwatch - because of the importance of time in trading.The guys on this site in the chat room know I work on 30 minute time changes and so know the importance of time a few minutes either side the half hour and the hour.

The drop on the EU on the 21st of December basically started after an half hr frame change - when all the frames up to an hour were well overbought after a quick 45 pip move up. I am showing what I mean on a 5 minute and 30 minute MT4 charts - which I dont use for trading off and then another example of a GFT tick chart ( which i do trade off) on the power of a frame change. - see below  and this hopefully might explain more etc 

 

Comment by spiro gonzales on January 8, 2012 at 5:48pm

HI Peter

The advantage of Lance Beggs his textbook "system" methodology is very simple that can be adapted to any time frame, the philosophy is to understand the supply and demand principle and take advantage of what is happening round the so-called R / S zones ..

.

where all the time trying to maneuver yourself into a position that minimizes the risk / loss in case of wrong entry.
You have 3 options when the price approaches S / R, the price makes a test, breakout and failure or breakout pullback

In a trend 2 options, find pullback or complex pullback that provides entry into a trend.
Lance Beggs ability to write specifically with substance within these categories in a systematic and high educational way that satisfies my 25% German genes, the rest is Norwegian.

Therefore, it is interesting for me to study the chart showing the entry, exit, SL with a little explanatory text justification for the entry .. A good debriefing should not take more than a few seconds to get the idea behind a trade.

I firmly believe the day a group in a forum decides to debrife their trade on their good and bad days where you dissect each other for better or worse, that group will develop strongly towards profitable direction ..
Today there is not such a forum ..

Experiential Learning Debriefing

Ernesto Yturralde, experiential trainer and researcher, explains: "In the field of experiential learning methodology, the debriefing is a semi-structured process by which the facilitator, once a certain activity is accomplished, makes a series of progressive questions in this session, with an adequate sequence that let the participants reflect what happened, giving important insights with the aim of that project towards the future, linking the challenge with the actions and the future."
Debriefing sessions can be made directly without the use of "props" or with them as support tools, achieving highly productive session. The skill levels of professional facilitators and their visions for each process, will be essential to capitalize on the experiences of experiential workshops, in moments of inspiration, teachable moments that become Debriefing sessions, into commitments for action.

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