Comment by Top Bear on February 17, 2013 at 1:43am

Thanks for the great analysis Haitham.

Comment by Franck Max on February 17, 2013 at 1:56pm

Haitham,

Recommendation is: 'Long positions above 1.3305.. ' At the moment  Price Action is stopped at 1.336256 or thereabouts.

Does it mean that we can go LONG as soon as the market opens tonight or wait until PA drops back to 1.3305, which will be a re-test of the Friday's low?

Cheers

Comment by Gjert Myrestrand on February 17, 2013 at 6:47pm

I feel very unsure about the movements this coming weeks. I have a feeling that the upside is limited. More prone to believe in the downside, especially if equity markets are unable to break higher from here. But we will see what happens.

Comment by Haitham653 on February 18, 2013 at 3:22pm

Sooner or later, recovery is coming (300/500) pips bullish move, but the problem is,in which level the upward trend will start (resume) !!!

Is it 1.3300 , 1.3180 or 1.3070 levels, It's just a matter of time , this scenario is strongly suggested by the daily chart....

A daily close above 1.3577 will retest - expose - 1.3710  levels..

On the 4 hour chart, a close above 1.3520 will retest - expose - 1.3710 - levels, 4 hour hour close below 1.3305 will delay the bullish move and extend the pullback from 1.3710 towards 1.3180/13070 levels...

Above 1.3710 will suggest that rising from 1.2042 is resuming and target 1.3890 161.8% of 1.3171/1.2042...

Only a daily close below 1.2997-unlikely-will invalid this view and open the way to 1.2660 levels...

Comment by Haitham653 on February 18, 2013 at 5:59pm

According to the daily and the 4 hour chart, we have strong early signs of bottoming at 1.3305, but further confirmation is indeed, on the 4 hour chart we need at least a 4 hour close above 1.3520 followed by a daily close above 1.3577 If seen, the pair will target 1.3890 levels..

On the downside, If 1.3305 fails, buyers will try bottoming around 1.3180 levels , If this level also fails, they will try around 1.3070...

However, as long as the daily close is above 1.2997 , the bullish trend will remain valid with eyes on 1.3890 levels, only a daily close below 1.2997 will completely terminate the bullish trend and bring massive bearish move towards 1.2660 even lower!!! 

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