EURUSD Weekly Outlook (17-21 Sept 2012)
The EURUSD continued its bullish momentum last week topped at 1.3168 and closed at 1.3127...
Before we start looking to the next week, I’d like first to take a quick look to most important support and resistance levels on daily chart!!
I’m gonna start from top to down!!!
1-Low of 01 Nov 2011 at 1.3608
2 Low of 09 Nov 2011 at 1.3520
3-Low of 03 Apr 2012 at 1.3212 (Monthly Resistance).
4-Low of 02 Mar 2012 at 1.3186 (Weekly Resistance).
5-Low of 09 Mar 2012 at 1.3096
6-High of 23 Jan 2012 at 1.3052
7 High of 03 Aug 2012 at 1.2392
These are previous bearish/bullish breakouts on daily , weekly and monthly.
As you see from the chart posted below, the pair trades now near the long term sloping resistance line around 1.3200 areas….
Add to that we have some strong resistance levels around this area at 1.3186 & 1.3212, I think breaking above this area is not easy at all, so I believe this rise is only a correction as long as we have a daily closing below 1.3212 levels, topping around this level is suggested !!!
But in return, a daily closing above 1.3212 followed by breaking above the sloping resistance line would be a trend reversal signal on long term and the pair should target 1.3520 easily…
On the downside , as you see we have big gap between 1.2392 & 1.3052 , so a daily closing below 1.3052 I think might be a real threat to the upward correction , and It might completely end this bullish scenario !!!
Here are some minor support levels on 4 hour chart:
1.2785, 1.2630, 1.2530
Conclusion: since we have lot of important levels around 1.3000 , at 1.3052, 1.3096 & 1.3212, I don’t think the pair is gonna leave this area very soon , It might trade here for 2 or 3 weeks before the next move, any reversal pattern followed by a daily closing below 1.3052 ; I think It might end this bullish correction !!!
So far, buying the pair at support is recommended …I think 1.3200 should be tested before any move below 1.30000 , because we don't have any sign of topping yet !!!
Trend Direction: Upward
Trading range for this week: 1.3000:1.3250
Recommendations for this week:
1-Buying the pair around 1.3050 targeting 1.3200, stop loss at 1.2980 or stop out with a daily closing below 1.3052.
2-Selling the pair –cautiously- with a daily closing below 1.3052 targeting 1.2800, stop loss 1.3120 or stop out with a daily closing above 1.3502…..
Note: for daily closing use GMT
Best Regards
Haitham653
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Comment by Haitham653 on September 17, 2012 at 8:21am -
Last Friday at European session , the level 1.3052 served as resistance for couple of hours before flying toward 1.3180 levels !!!
At U.S session declined toward 1.3096, found support around it !!!!
Now It trades around 1.3096 , yes It might find some support here , If failed , It should find strong one around 1.3052 !!!!!!
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Comment by Peter jcp on September 17, 2012 at 8:28am -
Morning Haitham - yes well spotted -its in a short term down mode trying to find support at the 3092 -96 area at this moment of time. If it did hold would need over 3115 to show the start of another try up. As you say if 3096 areas lets go then - 3080 for another support on the way to 3052.then 3022 under there.
Have a good week
Regards
Peter
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Comment by Romano on September 17, 2012 at 9:15am -
Mr Haitham, why for daily close u believe GMT 0 is more important than NY close? I always used to hear before that NY close is best etc..
PS: I actually do have GMT 0 but I am curious, thanks :)
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Comment by Haitham653 on September 17, 2012 at 9:43am
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Hello Romano ..
you may use any time you need but using GMT daily close would be more accurate for 2 reasons :
1- My analysis based on daily chart !!
2- Broker time is GMT !!!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on September 17, 2012 at 4:24pm
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I know It's early to say that but:
I think the EURO will keep ranging for awhile around 1.3000/1.3200 before the big fall below 1.3000 levels...not sure yet !!!
Anyway It looks like double top on the horizon ....
I think the next 24 hours would tell me lots of things about the rest of the week !!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on September 18, 2012 at 8:21am
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I have cancelled my long entry at 1.3052 .....
The EURO may drop 100/150 pips , then rise 30/50 pips , later another 100/150 pips drop !!
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