Outlook in EURUSD remains on the upside as long as 1.1382 support holds on a daily closing basis, resistance comes at the 1.1533 levels, a halt is likely, but a break would open 1.1679 next, further upside will aim the 1.1870/1.1997 levels.

On the downside, Immediate support comes at the 1.1382 levels, sustained breakout-daily closing- below the 1.1382 levels will suggest short term topping and bring a corrective pullback above the 1.1200/1.1130 levels before the next rise, However; a clear break below the 1.1130 levels will suggest topping in mid-term outlook and pave the way towards the 1.0845 levels…

In all, as long as 1.1382 support holds on a daily closing basis, outlook in EURUSD remains on the upside towards the 1.1533 levels ahead of the 1.1679 levels, below 1.1382 faces a pullback risk above the 1.1200/1.1130 levels before the next rise.

Support and resistance:  1.0845 (main), 1.0900, 1.0990, 1.1065 , 1.1130 (main), 1.1200, 1.1278, 1.1382 (main), 1.1533 , 1.1679 (main), 1.1870, 1.1997 .

Short term trend: (Daily Chart):

  • Very Bullish: Above 1.1382
  • Bullish (Neutral/Pullback): Above : 1.1130
  • Bearish: Below : 1.1130

Medium term trend: (Weekly Chart):

  • Bullish: Above 1.1130
  • Neutral (Recovery Mode): Above 1.0845
  • Neutral(Bearish) : Below : 1.0845
  • Very Bearish : Below 1.0461

Key data (events) which may affect EURUSD pair this week:

  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May). Tuesday at 09:00
  2. EuroZone CPI (YoY) (Apr). Tuesday at 09:00
  3. U.S Building Permits (Apr). Tuesday at 12:30
  4. U.S FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday at 18:00
  5. German Manufacturing PMI (May). Thursday at 07:30
  6. U.S Initial Jobless Claims .Thursday at 12:30
  7. U.S Existing Home Sales (Apr). Thursday at 14:00
  8. U.S Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May). Thursday at 14:00
  9. German GDP (QoQ) (Q1). Friday at 06:00
  10. German Ifo Business Climate Index (May). Friday at 08:00
  11. U.S CPI (MoM) (Apr). Friday at 12:30

*All Times Are GMT

Conclusion: Medium and short term trend are upward, further upside couldn’t be ruled out in the upcoming days, as usual keep an eye on NEWS near support and resistance levels, In general; positive data for the pair is likely to advance  it further higher,negative data should be taken an opportunity to buy the pair on dips.

The most critical events that need to be watched :

United Stated: FOMC meeting minutes followed by  Consumer Price Index data , FOMC  is the only event which could bring strong reversal but this scenario sounds unlikely this week !!!!!

EuroZone : All German data are critical this week, Negative data from EuroZone is likely to bring a corrective pullback to test support levels before the next rise !!



EURUSD Weekly Forecast May 18 2015

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