EUR/USD Weekly Outlook 13 -17 Feb 2012

Hello everyone

As shown on the weekly chart, for the third week, the EURO was unable to make any weekly close above Fib 123.6 at 1.3223 , so far the pair is trapped between Fib 123.6 – 1.3223 and Fib 138.2 – 1.3020 , a weekly close above 1.3223 is indeed to test the area around 1.3550 in medium term?!!

After closing above EMA 100 – 1.3252 - on daily chart last week, a sudden drop happened last Friday , breached below 1.3192 and tested 1.3150, but the positive thing is that the pair jumped towards 1.3200 levels and closed at 1.3195 which means that the level 1.3192 is still serving as strong support .

This week, we may test 1.3150 – 1.3100 before heading towards 1.3300 levels, remember a break below 1.3100 may test 1.3040/00 , stability above 1.3192 is indeed to keep the bullish trend intact , a clear break above 1.3290 is supposed to resume the uptrend and may break above 1.3320 ,  a break below 1.3040 may eliminate the bullish trend and may test 1.2930 !!

What would happen?!!

According to EMA 100 on daily chart, we are up but the pair may test 1.3150/100 before heading towards 1.3300 level, or it may continue rising without testing 1.3150/100!!

Check the other daily chart, look at the circled candle above EMA 50 on daily chart, this is where the breakout happened, so far the pair stopped around Fib 138.2 – 1.3310 – it’s supposed to test 161.8 but in the weaker trend it usually stops around 138.2?!!

There’s a fact which I consider it a threat to the upward trend , Williams Indicator on daily , we have a bearish divergence , this is one of the strongest divergences of all , Williams suggests a test to 1.3290 before testing 1.3040/00 or breaking below this area , so we need to be careful ?!!!

I guess this week the pair may range between 1.3040/00 and 1.3300/30, so we can buy at support 1.3040 and sell at resistance 1.3290?!!

On 4 hour chart, it looks like a normal test the broken resistance but we need a break above 1.3213 to test 1.3300?!!

EURUSD Daily Outlook 13 Feb 2012

According to 60 min chart, we have a bearish breakout; the pair is supposed to test the area 1.3240/90 before heading towards 1.3120, to form a lower leg below 1.3150, then I guess it would range between 1.3120/190 before heading towards 1.3300 ?!!

Well, on Monday we need to evaluate pair’s activities on 60 min chart around 1.3240/90, stability below this level probably would lead for a strong bearish move towards 1.3120?!!

Also we need to watch 1.3100/150?!!

To resume the uptrend I guess we need a clear break above 1.3290/330 but according to the daily chart I guess it’s unlikely this week?!!

Trend Direction is Upward, the trend will remain valid as long as the daily close is above 1.3038, technical targets are around 1.3314 & 1.3395

Trading range: 1.3100: 1.3300

Support: 1.3192, 1.3150, 1.3100, 1.3038

Resistance: 1.3252, 1.3314, 1.3327,1.3395

Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is selling the pair 1.3280 targeting 1.3210 & 1.3120, stop loss at 1.3350

Silver  Weekly Outlook 13 -17 Feb 2012

As you see on the weekly chart, 3 weeks ago the pair managed to close above EMA 50 on weekly, the high of the candle that breached above EMA 50 was 34.00,  2 weeks later the pair couldn't make any close above 34.00 which means there's no strong bullish momentum or any bullish move probably would be a limited , the idea I guess we are gonna test EMA 50 this week 32.84 !!

On 4 hour chart we need to evaluate pairs activities around 32.80 , a clear break below this area may test 32.10 in medium term ?!!

According to the weekly chart, I guess the pair may range between 32.10 and 35.60 in the next coming weeks...

Silver Daily Outlook 13 Feb 2012

According to 60 min chart, a bullish correction is suggested to the area 33.75 / 34.05 before testing 33.10 , a clear break above 33.40 may open doors to reach 35.00 levels also we need to watch the pair around 33.10 on 60 min chart...

Trend Direction is Upward, the trend will remain valid as long as the daily close is above 32.80 technical targets are around 36.60 levels.

Trading range: 33.00: 34.00

Support:  33.40, 33.10, 32.80 , 32.40

Resistance: 33.93 ,34.40, 34.75, 35.35

Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is selling the pair around 33.85 targeting 33.10  & 32.50 , stop loss at 33.70.

Best Regards


Monday 13 Feb 2012  12:00 PM

Views: 687

Comment by Haitham653 on February 13, 2012 at 6:11pm

Listen Sabbir , this morning the pair found strong resistance at 1.3283 , created a lower-top on the 60 min chart forming an emerging pattern and setting up the market for further weakness, the market’s failure at 1.3283 this morning helped form the down sloping resistance line of a downward channel on hourly chart , creating a high opportunity for bearish swing traders which may lead to a break to the down sloping support line near 1.3180 / 1.3154...

Breaking of 1.3154 is supposed to test 1.3180/200 before heading towards 1.3040/00..

Few hours ago , buyers tried to put a bottom at 1.3230 but they failed , incase the pair manage to close above 1.3230 , any move above this level is so vulnerable and sudden drop may happen any moment!!

To resume the upward move the top which was created this morning at 1.3283 should be taken out ?!!

Comment by Haitham653 on February 13, 2012 at 7:43pm

Update silver : As long as the level 34.01 holds , strong bearish move is on the horizon towards 32.80 and may be 32.10 ?!!

If  34.01 is taken out - hourly close - strong and volatile move may seen , the pair probably would test or break of 34.50 ?!!

so stop out with an hourly close above 34.01 ?!!!


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