EUR/USD Daily Outlook 01 FEB 2012
The EURO depreciated strongly yesterday closed below 1.3115 at 1.3070 but tested 1.3040 , the pair is trading now in critical area ; around EMA 200 on 1 hour 1.3055, EMA 50 on 4 hour 1.3058 and EMA 50 on daily 1.3057, I see 3 strong major support levels , so what would happen next?!!
Honestly, it’s so hard to say, the market is choppy; we may go down 1.3000 or fly towards 1.3200 once again, as long as the daily close is above 1.3000 levels and below 1.3200.
Briefly, we have strong conflict , 3 EMAs on 3 major time frames are pushing up , but we have a pattern looks like head and shoulders on 4 hour , so I’ll stay outside ?!!
But there’s one fact that we should notice on daily chart, last Friday the pair almost created a lower-top on daily forming an emerging pattern and setting up the market for further weakness, the market’s failure at 1.3232 helped form the down sloping resistance line of a downward channel on daily creating a high opportunity for bearish swing traders which may lead to a break to the down sloping support line near 1.2622 in medium term?!! BUT to activate this pattern we still need a daily close below the psychological level 1.3000 otherwise we still have 50% chance to pullback towards 1.3200 levels?!!
Once again we need to watch these levels today, 1.3000, 1.3057 and 1.3115?!
An hourly close or 4 hour close below 1.3057 may test 1.3000 , an hourly or 4 hour close above 1.3115 would take us towards 1.3200 level , this time be careful , that would be the third test to 1.3211 and the pair may pass this level ?!!
The day before yesterday, we tested 1.3115, yesterday we tested 1.3057, and so today we may test 1.3000?!!
1-A daily close above 1.3211 would test 1.3370 & 1.3550 in medium term!
2-A daily close below 1.3000 would test 1.2780, 1.2600 ?
Trend Direction is Upward, the trend will remain valid as long as the daily close is above 1.3000, technical targets are around 1.3240 & 1.3770.
The trading range for today probably would be between the support level 1.3000 and the resistance level 1.3200
Support: 1.2930, 1.3000, 1.3057
Resistance: 1.3115, 1.3200, 1.3270
Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above my recommendation is observing trading today for more confirmations?!
Silver Daily Outlook 01 FEB 2012
The silver breached above 33.92 on 30 min chart yesterday, but in bigger time frames; it was unable to break so it declined strongly around a 100 pips in 2 hours, the pair is trading now around critical level 33.00, so far as long as the daily close is above 32.74 we are in upward trend, according to 30 min chart momentum indicators are diverging the price, so strong pullback may happen today from 33.00 levels towards 34.00 levels..
These levels need to be watched: 32.74, 33.37 and 33.92, breaking of 33.92 would test 38.50 in medium term , breaking down of 32.74 would test 31.00 levels...
Support: 32.25,32.75, 33.10
Resistance: 33.40, 33.92, 34.55
Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is buying the pair at 33.10 targeting 34.10, stop loss at 32.55.
Wednesday 01 Feb 2012 07:35 AM