EURUSD & Silver Outlook 01 FEB 2012
EUR/USD Daily Outlook 01 FEB 2012
The EURO depreciated strongly yesterday closed below 1.3115 at 1.3070 but tested 1.3040 , the pair is trading now in critical area ; around EMA 200 on 1 hour 1.3055, EMA 50 on 4 hour 1.3058 and EMA 50 on daily 1.3057, I see 3 strong major support levels , so what would happen next?!!
Honestly, it’s so hard to say, the market is choppy; we may go down 1.3000 or fly towards 1.3200 once again, as long as the daily close is above 1.3000 levels and below 1.3200.
Briefly, we have strong conflict , 3 EMAs on 3 major time frames are pushing up , but we have a pattern looks like head and shoulders on 4 hour , so I’ll stay outside ?!!
But there’s one fact that we should notice on daily chart, last Friday the pair almost created a lower-top on daily forming an emerging pattern and setting up the market for further weakness, the market’s failure at 1.3232 helped form the down sloping resistance line of a downward channel on daily creating a high opportunity for bearish swing traders which may lead to a break to the down sloping support line near 1.2622 in medium term?!! BUT to activate this pattern we still need a daily close below the psychological level 1.3000 otherwise we still have 50% chance to pullback towards 1.3200 levels?!!
Once again we need to watch these levels today, 1.3000, 1.3057 and 1.3115?!
An hourly close or 4 hour close below 1.3057 may test 1.3000 , an hourly or 4 hour close above 1.3115 would take us towards 1.3200 level , this time be careful , that would be the third test to 1.3211 and the pair may pass this level ?!!
The day before yesterday, we tested 1.3115, yesterday we tested 1.3057, and so today we may test 1.3000?!!
Remember;
1-A daily close above 1.3211 would test 1.3370 & 1.3550 in medium term!
2-A daily close below 1.3000 would test 1.2780, 1.2600 ?
Trend Direction is Upward, the trend will remain valid as long as the daily close is above 1.3000, technical targets are around 1.3240 & 1.3770.
The trading range for today probably would be between the support level 1.3000 and the resistance level 1.3200
Support: 1.2930, 1.3000, 1.3057
Resistance: 1.3115, 1.3200, 1.3270
Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above my recommendation is observing trading today for more confirmations?!
Silver Daily Outlook 01 FEB 2012
The silver breached above 33.92 on 30 min chart yesterday, but in bigger time frames; it was unable to break so it declined strongly around a 100 pips in 2 hours, the pair is trading now around critical level 33.00, so far as long as the daily close is above 32.74 we are in upward trend, according to 30 min chart momentum indicators are diverging the price, so strong pullback may happen today from 33.00 levels towards 34.00 levels..
These levels need to be watched: 32.74, 33.37 and 33.92, breaking of 33.92 would test 38.50 in medium term , breaking down of 32.74 would test 31.00 levels...
Support: 32.25,32.75, 33.10
Resistance: 33.40, 33.92, 34.55
Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is buying the pair at 33.10 targeting 34.10, stop loss at 32.55.
Best Regards
Haitham653
Wednesday 01 Feb 2012 07:35 AM
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Comment by Angely on February 1, 2012 at 7:52am -
I always enjoy your clear and brief explanation.
A good reading from your post that you presented every day.
Thanks Haitham
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 9:06am -
Thanx Angely...U R welcome
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 9:07am
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Strong buy entry on the horizon, if it happens , we may pass 1.3211 today ?!!
we'll find out the next few hours...
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 9:11am
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According to weekly chart , the pair is supposed to test the area around 1.3020 before heading towards 1.3550 , also EMA 50 on daily is protecting the upward trend and still targeting 1.3370.
Only a daily close below 1.3000 , a weekly would better will resume the down trend and the next target would be around 1.2600 ?!
I'll post a chart with details later...
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Comment by No money on February 1, 2012 at 9:28am -
Hi Haitham, thx for outlook, eu on 4hr H&S?
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 12:36pm
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The pair closed above the suggested level 1.3115 ,then test it before heading towards 1.3200 level. now EUR/USD is 1.3190, we may break above 1.3211 today...
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 12:59pm
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As shown on the weekly chart of the rally 1.4940 - 1.3551 , the pair found strong support around Fib 161.8 (1.2693) ,last week we had a close above 1.30020 Fib 138.2 , as long as the weekly close above 1.3000 the next target is 1.3551 in medium term , add to that EMA 50 on daily is supporting upward trend ,for more details read the yearly report !
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 1:03pm
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The drop that happened this week probably is a normal test to Fib 138.2 on weekly at 1.3020 before heading towards 1.3550 the next coming weeks, as long as the weekly close is above 1.3000 level.
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 3:07pm
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According to 15 min chart , the pair may find support around 1.3150 and try to break above 1.3200
Generally : an hourly close - stability above 1.3115, may lead for a break above 1.3200 , an hourly close below 1.3115 may test 1.3060/1.3000
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Comment by Haitham653 on February 1, 2012 at 4:19pm
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An hourly close above 1.3201 may test 1.3265, stability below 1.3201 may test 1.3115
Regards...
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