As shown on the monthly chart below, EURUSD is in long term consolidation after topping at 1.6038 – 2008 high, this consolidation is likely to continue for a while between 1.16400/1.6038 levels before the next move.

Let’s shift down to the weekly chart; a leg to the upside has started from 1.2042 levels, so far the pair found resistance at 1.3710 and declined to 1.3000 levels.

Note that as long as the key support – 1.2661 – holds, rebound to 1.3710 is suggested, above 1.3710 will suggest that rise from 1.2042 is resuming and the pair is likely to target 1.4940/1.5140 levels, a clear break below 1.2661 will suggest that rise from 1.2042 is finished at 1.3710, and a lower leg is strongly suggested below 1.2042 towards 1.16400 levels

The last point, according to monthly Williams, we need to keep an eye on 1.3017 levels – Feb 2013 low – a monthly close below 1.3017 will add strong bearish momentum to the pair and pave the way to 1.2500/1.2000 levels, a monthly close above 1.3017 will bring consolidation between 1.3000/1.3700 levels for the next 3 – 6 months, above 1.3710 will target 1.5000 levels.

Conclusion: now I can summarize both monthly and weekly in 2 points:

1- A monthly close below 1.3017 followed by a weekly close below 1.2661 will bring deeper fall towards 1.1875/1.16400 levels.

2-Rebound from/above 1.2661 followed by a monthly close above 1.3017 will focus on 1.3710 levels, above 1.3710 will pave the way to 1.5000 levels. 

Best Regards

Haitham