Comment by Haitham653 on January 30, 2013 at 8:05am

Keep in mind that a daily close above 1.3520 -09 Nov 2011 low- sooner or later - will push the pair further higher to 1.3858 - 09 Nov 2011 high...around this level we have the 61.8% retracement of the big run ( 1.2042 - 1.4939 ) at 1.3830...

Another view, the big triangle on daily was broken at 1.3330, add to that 500 pips , the first target would be around 1.3830 levels,however, still early to talk about that but If the pair surpasses 1.3900 , add another 500 pips to 1.3830 which is 1.34300!!!

EURUSD - 1.3850 or 1.2700 ?!!!

Comment by Haitham653 on January 30, 2013 at 11:57am

I believe the EURO would fall - suddenly - without notice , 700/800 pips in matter of 1 or 2 week(s), exactly the same as the way it rose in last September !!

The smart question is WHEN ?!!

Unfortunately, I don't know?!!!

But these days it will rise at least to 1.3600 levels, even 1.3850 is strongly suggested ?!!

Will it fall from 1.3850. levels, let's wait and see !!!

Comment by Luke Sierpniak on January 30, 2013 at 12:02pm

Thats the first smart thing i heard today

Comment by Peter jcp on January 30, 2013 at 12:08pm

Hi Haitham - a perfect time might be starting next week - with a new month upon us. Like you don't know when and how big a  pullback - but think now even if we go back down to 3000 - still in uptrend - so might be a good time to stop hunt all bulls with stops under 200-300 pips ;-)

I can see you have your second target at 3590 - and thinking if we stay above 3534 during next hr or so - then might try over 3563 again 

GL 

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Haitham653 on January 30, 2013 at 12:34pm

Hi Peter

I don't know when but I know how it's gonna happen !

First of all ,UK is strong supporter to the EURO for 2 reasons :

1- To protect British investments in the European Union.

2- To break the USD..

UK is not officially in the European Union, but sooner It will completely isolate itself from the EU , If seen, the EURO will be in big trouble.

The second reason is Japan, Japan also is strong supporter to the EURO, to break(dip) the USD, so the the Yen could rise!

This war won't last forever, sooner or later it will end , the few coming weeks or months, not sure!

But when it's over, the  EURO will fall like waterfall..??!!

Comment by Haitham653 on January 30, 2013 at 1:17pm

As long as the key support 1.3515 holds, eyes on 1.3600 levels, below 1.3515 may delay the bullish move and bring some consolidation !!!

Comment by Haitham653 on January 30, 2013 at 3:16pm

Looks like the EURO is heading to the weekly resistance (R2) at 1.3616

Comment by Romano on January 30, 2013 at 4:27pm

Hello Haitham, I was checking some possible liquidity areas. First significant one I see is at around 3750 and also 3825, thus I will trade longs up to 3725.There is something also at 3920 and 3980 - fresh "relatively" unused pools start from these levels. Relatively because they themself were formed from big pullback but price had a sharp drop there and no pullback on those occurred yet since then.

If that break too, then starting at 4350 up should be *very* strong. However, the ultimate stand at around 1.55 and... I actually think we are going there eventually - looking from monthly.

Lets see how monthly candle end. If I were big money and wanted to short badly, I would pick 3950 with 3750 as starting distribution in small doses and from 3950 big ones.

I dont agree with Peter this time though that 3000 would still be bullish - on monthly and weekly it really looks too far so if that happen I would expect at least back to 1.2 or major downtrend resume under.

As for me so far, I am scalping longs up to 3725 then I will see. 

Best regards

Comment by Peter jcp on January 30, 2013 at 5:09pm

Hi Romano and Haitham - will have to check on my charts again whether the 3000 level is still being bullish - as before I still had bullish over 50% over last run up of approx 1400 pips so about 2850 or so. I can see purely off a trendline we would need to stay over say approx 3200 - but if we get to over 3600 and Haitham's weekly R2 - then that still allows a 350-400 pip pullback.

I am just hearing on UK news about the US economy faltering last quarter - so this is some of the reason for the continual push up - I do reckon next week with a new month - might mean technicals and new fundamentals might be used as a reason.

Also if you have a few players looking at 3700 to 4000 - there is nothing to say it cannot happen

Regards

Peter 

Comment by Romano on January 30, 2013 at 5:35pm

Yes Peter, about 3200 or so is ok and also possible - to create some wick on monthly ;)

I only believe in liquidity from now not economic data. What was funny today was US GDP drop from prev 3.1% to -0.1% lol. What I believe is that GDP havent changed much and is negative for years. This was only closer dose of reality, maybe they used it to expect deflation scenario so they can print more to that without seeing effect... except now markets threat it as $ negative as Ben pretty much managed to eliminate shorts in the recent past and there are also expectations of his actions.

It will be interesting to see what he say today, because if he(or others) say to be concerned about QE and its longevity, thats exactly market reaction they need so they can continue print without being too visible. Thus for me both scenarios are bullish hehe ;)

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