EUR/USD forecast 22.06.2011
As i've said the vote of confidence in Grece has passed yesterday successfully, now Grece has some more things to do before recieving of the next money transfer. Noone wants to see that Grece is going to eat these money and will do nothing more than going deep into the crisis with raising the ECB interestrate. But ECB's golden rule ' if you pretend there is no problem, the problem will disappear ' proved right for now. Today FOMC will take a decision which is clear for everyone, there will be no change in the policy, and this is the main reason for the EUR going higher and higher. Too bad but this process will continue. On 4H chart there is a clear 'wedge formation' which is leading us directly to 1.4520. There is only one resistance @ 1.4453 which can be passed easily.
It's pretty difficult to tell you the entry point for today, all are still holding their LONGS, there was just partly take profit after the vote of confidence. So my forecast for today again will be LONG above 1.4310. We may never go to 1.4310 today so enter where you decide and add to LONGS once above 1.4410. Be carefull as the pair attempts to return into the major upside channel which started at the end of 2010. However this will be very difficult approaching 1.4520 major resistance level. EUR will not be able to hold above the mentioned resistance level then we shall have a downside break of the major upside channel then downside break of 1.43 level and from there we are going down - how much we shall see in a month.
On MONTHLY and WEEKLY charts we are still out of the downside channel until the pair is below 1.4150.
For today EUR will dip to get a better price then will go up, there will be a little pause @ 1.4425 then will attack 1.4450 if successfull we are going to 1.45 - 1.4520 in the next 30-36h. Downside scenario will be only if in the next 16h 1.43 support is breached, i'll not discuss this because it's less possible. If this happens I'll post an update.
This is for now, any comments and questions are welcomed.
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Comment by Aldi Urban on June 22, 2011 at 3:44am -
I really like ur opinion about euro ... thanks for sharing ...good on u bro
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 22, 2011 at 4:01am -
Thanks man, good luck with trade today
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Comment by Andrew Blasio on June 22, 2011 at 6:45am
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No change of Policy, End of QE2 and no QE3. Don't you think the Dollar will rally thus pulling down the Euro?
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Comment by fuji on June 22, 2011 at 7:07am
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Thank you for sharing your info, correct me if I'm wrong due to I'm still new to the FX market, in my humble opinion, I can only see 14333ish is the 4h chart Fib retracement .50 level for the price range between 13968-14695, it could retest again or may not hold there in the near future, also if it can pass through the 14470ish-14500ish level then it can continue going higher to 14600-14700zone...
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 22, 2011 at 7:25am
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@ Andrew - FED is expected not to rise intrerestrate until 2012, Mr.Bernarke needs cheap dollar to help economy grouth to stabilize, ECB wants inflation below 2% and ECB must hike very soon, in this situation EURO will continue upside move. BEWARE - summer vacasion is comming, most of the traders will quit the market - this may cause sharp decline of the pair to the downside. Watch the market very carefully. But for now if ECB hikes rate next month EUR will go even more UP.
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 22, 2011 at 7:29am
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@ Fuji - you're right, @ 1.4520 we have strong major resistance which keeps the pair down for nearly 2 months, i think it can only be passed successfully on ECB rate hike, until the we shall consolidate below in the 'wedge formation'
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Comment by Andrew Blasio on June 22, 2011 at 7:32am
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Thanks Vladimir!
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Comment by fuji on June 22, 2011 at 8:28am
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Thanks Vladimir!
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Comment by Zaide Ziervogel on June 22, 2011 at 10:35am -
thanks....sharing..
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 22, 2011 at 2:11pm
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UPDATE: Possible test of 1.4450 in the next 4h and probably a test of 1.4520 in the next 12h. FOMC decision follows and Mr.Bernakre's speech. Caution: volatile moves expected !!!
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