Medium-term outlook:

With yesterday's close (1.4013) , the pair closed below the support level 1.4048 and put a top at 1.4345 adding more bearish pressure and opened too many doors to attack 1.3750 and 1.3450 a break below yesterday's low (1.3968) is supposed to accelerate the down move toward 1.3750 a break below the last one would test 1.3450 level , but you need to be careful around these levels 1.3750 - 1.3450 so far the weekly trend is upward so the pair may fluctuate strongly around these levels and may jump 300 or 400 pips in one day , so your target should be away 50- 70 pips of these levels..

To keep the down side available the pair should be stabilized below 1.4156 , a daily close above this level would suggest more bullish move toward 1.4250 -1.4350 levels..

For buyers , a daily close - weekly better - above 1.4345 - 1.4440 would take us again into the weekly trend and should test 1.5000 level A.S.A.P.....

For sellers , this is the best time to take swing trades , look for the nearest resistance short the pair , exit with 40 -70 pips profit with tight stop , small time frames, as long as the daily close is below 1.4156...


Daily Outlook :

If we shift down to the 1 hour chart , we have light bullish trend , so I assume some retracement today to the nearest resistance levels 1.4068 - 1.4122 - 1.4156 where it’s recommended to evaluate pair’s activities on smaller time frames 60 min and below , once you get a short signal around or below these levels short the pair immediately ...But be careful , a break above 1.4156 -1.4172 would suggest more bullish move toward 1.4250 -1.4350...


Technical resistance levels:   1.4180 -1.4250 - 1.4350 - 1.4395 - 1.4440 - 1.4510
Technical support levels: 1.4075 - 1.3980 - 1.3915 - 1.3810 - 1.3750 - 1.3650
Trading range: 1.4150 - 1.3800
Trend Direction: Downward

Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above, my recommendation is selling the pair around 1.4155 targeting 1.3980 and 1.3820, stop loss 1.4250.

Best Regards


Views: 19


Comment by Haitham653 on May 24, 2011 at 10:09am

The pair has already found new resistance at 1.4116 on 60 min chart , a close above this level may test 1.4150-1.4170..

A failure to break above this level may lead for a strong slide or a consolidation followed by a slide toward 1.4020/00..


24 May 2011  11:09 AM

Comment by Haitham653 on May 24, 2011 at 2:36pm

A consolidation may lead for a slide , the bullish correction is losing momentum , according to yesterday's close , a major support 1.4048 was taken out , any bullish move above this level is supposed to limited, the market may back below 1.4048 at any moment...



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