EURUSD Daily Outlook 20 FEB 2012

Hello everyone,

According to RSI on daily chart, the pair is in downtrend, but an upward move is suggested before possible topping?!!

Anyway, we have 2 important pivots that need to be watched: 1.2930 & 1.3235 on daily?!

1-Breaking down of 1.2930 is going to eliminate the bullish trend, and it would take the pair towards 1.2600 levels?!!

2-Breaking of 1.3235 is going to take us towards 1.3550 in medium term – possible top?!

For me I’d like to go with option 2, I’ll tell later why?!!

Don’t forget to watch the daily close around 1.2930 & 1.3235?!!

Let’s shift down to the 4 hour, and see what options do we have?!!

As shown on the chart, the main bottom 1.3027 – of the bullish breakout 1.2930 – has been breached, which makes believe that the pair is going to test or move below this level this week?

According to Williams indicator, a 4 hour close below 1.3121 is supposed to add strong bearish momentum to the pair and test 1.3044 at least?!!

Finally, let’s see what the hourly chart says?!!

We have bearish breakout, RSI is diverging the price below 70 line – strong bearish momentum – we need a break below 1.3100 level to accelerate the down move suggested for today?!!

Trend Direction is Upward ( weak), the trend will remain valid as long as the daily close is above 1.3044, technical targets are around 1.3314 & 1.3395

Trading range: 1.3000: 1.3250

Support: 1.3159,1.3127,1.3100 , 1.3044 1.3000,1.2933

Resistance: 1.3190, 1.3215, 1.3285, 1.3330, 1.3390

Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is selling the pair around 1.3190 targeting 1.3110 and 1.3050 , stop loss at 1.3305

Best Regards

Haitham653

Sunday 19 Feb 2012  10:20 PM

Views: 845

Tags: EUR, EUR/USD, USD

Comment by ROR on February 20, 2012 at 6:20am

Hello Haitham hope u r fine...plz what about the silver? Have a nice day.

Thank you

Comment by Haitham653 on February 20, 2012 at 1:00pm

As said last Friday on my comments , the 30 min chart is still dominating the pair's move, we still have an extended bearish divergence , this is a bullish reversal in short term , suggests further upside before possible topping?!!

On 60 min chart, we have bullish breakout this morning, the pair may test 1.3180 before heading towards 1.3285 but the most important is the 4 hour and the daily:

According to the 4 hour , the main bottom at 1.3027 has been breached, and any move above this level is supposed to be vulnerable , the pair tried this morning to top at 1.2335 but it failed, according to the 4 hour a clear break above 1.3350 is supposed to eliminate the bearish scenario

Remember, a 4 hour close below 1.3120 is supposed to take us towards 1.2930 ?!!

Finally, the daily chart, the pair is trading above the pivotal level 1.3235 where RSI formed its high - 65 - , now RSI is below 60 while price is above 1.3235 (low bullish momentum)...we need to watch the daily close around this level,anyway I guess the pair would fall and close below 1.3235 today ?!!

Also Williams on daily suggests possible topping around 1.3235 ?!!

Keep in mind , If we have a daily close below 1.3235, It's supposed too open to many doors to reach the area around 1.2930 ?!!

Comment by Haitham653 on February 20, 2012 at 2:29pm

The Silver pulled pack from the suggested level last Friday 32.80/33.00, but to resume the upward move a break above 34.01 is indeed !!

Remember, as long as the daily close is above 32.82, the pair is under positive pressure but the pair may test this level once again , it's a good place to scalp the silver for sure I mean buy the pair around this level ?!!

Even if we have a break below 32.82 , probably the down move is supposed to stop around 32.10 ?!!

Comment by Haitham653 on February 20, 2012 at 3:23pm

EURUSD touched the 60 level of RSI on daily and declined below 60,so the pair may top at 1.3275 a daily close below 1.3235 is supposed to keep the down move suggested for today valid!!

Comment by Haitham653 on February 20, 2012 at 3:47pm

Williams on 4 is diverging the price " bearish" , It's only a matter of time before the next fall ?!!

The pair probably would test 1.3160 & 1.3120 the next 24 hours ?!!

Comment by Haitham653 on February 20, 2012 at 4:16pm

Looks like Rising Wedge "Reversal" on 60 min chart, check the chart above:

Comment by Haitham653 on February 20, 2012 at 6:10pm

According to 15 min chart, the upward move is supposed to stop now. we may test 1.3200/180 the next few hours..

Regards..

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