EURUSD Daily Outlook 19 Oct 2012
The EURUSD was unable to maintain its bullish momentum yesterday , topped at 1.3128 and closed lower at 1.3068...
By checking the 1 hour chart, the pair is under strong pressure, it formed head and shoulders pattern, bearish reversal in short term outlook , its first target already achieved around 1.3055,the next one around 1.3000/1.2960 levels, but overall outlook remains bullish as long as 1.3055 holds, a daily close below this level would mean that consolidation from 1.3171 is resuming and it would target 1.2740 levels, this level is supposed to contain the consolidation , but a clear break below this level would resume the long term bearish trend and target 1.2400/1.2000 levels,for the upside a daily close above 1.3150/170 levels is indeed to resume the bullish scenario toward 1.3500 levels.
Back again to 60 min chart, as long as the pair trades below 1.3115, eyes will be on 1.3000, to continue the bullish move , the pair needs to clear 1.3072 and 1.3115 first, stability above 1.3115 would weak 1.3139,and might surpass 1.3171, but in return stability below 1.3055 would increase the risk toward 1.2991 and 1.2950 levels!!
Fundamental focus today is on Existing Home Sales from United States at 02:00 PM GMT, any release above 4.82M would be good for USD and vise versa , anyway expectations are negative for USD today !!
Resistance 1.3110 1.3155 1.3200 1.3250
Support 1.3055 1.3010 1.2960 1.2910
Best Regards
Haitham
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 8:53am -
GBPJPY: the pair under strong pressure, as long as 127.50 holds look for 126.45
& 125.00, above 127.50 would threat/weak 128.22 !!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 9:00am
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EURUSD: below 1.3072 look for 1.2991 & 1.2953 , above 1.3072 would threat 1.3115/140 !!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 9:12am
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GBPUSD: below 1.6060 look for 1.6030(already tested) and1.5997/1.5930, above 1.6060 would threat 1.6080 /1.6115/1.6155 !!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 9:18am
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USDCHF: above 0.9240 look for 0.9280/0.9330/0.9370 , below 0.9240 would threat 0.9200 levels!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 9:47am
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GBPUSD: update: an hourly close below 1.6032 ( recent low ) would extend the bearish move toward 1.5970/30 levels, If this scenario happens , bottoming around 1.5930 is suggested before the next rise !!!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 2:16pm
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EURUSD :,the pair is supposed to close today above 1.3070 - 05 Oct 2012 high - to resume the bullish move , If this this scenario happens , most likely the pair would surpass 1.3171 easily next week....
But in return , If the pair closes today below 1.3070, this scenario would suggest that the bullish move happened above 1.3070 this week is fake and most likely strong bearish move is expected at the opposite direction next week !!!
However, a daily close below 1.3070 would suggest that consolidation from 1.3171 is resuming, another daily close below 1.2950 would take us A.S.A.P toward 1.2740 levels !!!
Finally, the daily RSI shows a lack of bullish momentum, to resume the bullish trend strongly RSI should break above 70 , otherwise sideways move is suggested before the big collapse !!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 3:53pm
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Almost all suggested targets achieved today...
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 19, 2012 at 7:51pm
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Bearish breakout has been already confirmed on the 4 hour chart at 1.3042, eyes on 1.2740 levels as long as 1.3070 holds,
Only a 4 hour close above 1.3070 will flip bias back to the upside , otherwise the pair under strong pressure !!!!
More details next week....
Comment
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