EURUSD Daily Outlook 18 Oct 2012
The EURUSD corrected higher a bit yesterday, topped at 1.3139 and closed at 1.3112!!
In the medium term outlook the pair trades now at crossroad as shown on the weekly chart below, a clear break above 1.3150/200 area could lead for major change and target 1.3500 levels, above 1.3500 will target 1.5000 levels, a rejection from 1.3150/200 levels followed by a daily/weekly close below 1.3000 would threat 1.2740 levels, however this level is strong and able to contain any bearish correction, losing 1.2740 with 2 or 3 weekly closes below this level would resume the long term bearish trend and target 1.2000 levels , most likely would form a lower leg below 1.1875 - 2010 low - before attempting to break above 1.3500 levels !!
The short term outlook is bullish as intraday time frames suggest , but be careful , H1 RSI starts losing momentum , to resume the bullish momentum , we need a break above 1.3171 - recent high - stability below this level would push toward 1.2991 levels !!
Yesterday the pair found support at 1.3118, serves as resistance now, to attack 1.3171, 1.3118 should be taken out , stability above 1.3118 is supposed to weak 1.3139 !!!
Below 1.3118 we have 1.3095 , losing 1.3095 would test 1.3042, the last support level for bulls is 1.2991 !
Fundamental focus today and tomorrow is on EU Economic Summit , this summit is supposed to be an early warning about euro's health in the future, most likely outcomes will direct/affect the pair for the next few coming weeks !! also focus will be on Spanish 10-y Bond Auction !!!
From United States , we have Jobless Claims at 12:30 PM GMT, we also have Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and Existing Home Sales at 02:00 PM GMT !!
Main support and resistance levels:
Resistance 1.3100 1.3145 1.3190 1.3270
Support 1.3050 1.3010 1.2920 1.2825
Best Regards
Haitham
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 8:54am -
GBPUSD: to resume the bullish move , 1.6155 should be taken out , stability above 1.6155 would weak 1.6178 and look above 1.6200 levels !!
Strong support would come at 1.6112, below this level look for 1.6072 !!!
Below 1.6072 may threat 1.5997 !!!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 9:04am
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USDCHF: Satbility below 0.9235 would keep strong pressure on 0.9200 levels, a break is suggested as long as 0.9235 holds..
Above 0.9235 look for 0.9280, the next resistance would come at 0.9330 !!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 10:15am
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The EURUSD already tested 1.3118 , the pair was rejected with reversal candle according to H1 time frame !!!
Below 1.3118 eyes will be on 1.3040 , above 1.3118 would test/surpass 1.3171 !!!
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Comment by Predrag on October 18, 2012 at 10:22am -
So, nothing from big drop?
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 10:40am
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Hello Predrag...
The EU Economic Summit is an important events ,outcomes might affect the EURO for the next few coming weeks , so any drop might not happen in one day and night !!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 11:34am
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It's Obvious that EU leaders will discuss the future of the Union today !!!
But under table I believe they will be focusing on the U.S presidential election !!
Since Obama is under real threat and he might leave the white house !!!
The most important things that will be discussed:
What are the available options for Obama !!
When Obama is going to expose all his paper !!
What would happen If Romney wins, How would this scenario affect the future of the European Union?!!!
Anyway ,EU leaders are preparing for good or bad !!!
I think they will be no important decisions about the Union !!
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Comment by Peter jcp on October 18, 2012 at 11:46am -
Hi Haitham - there was a foiled attempt to blow up the Federal Reserve Bank in NY yesterday.
They say it was known by FBI etc and all was OK as two of the guys involved were working for the FBI ;-)
So a "sting" but many might think - that would be a good idea - and if we can find those printing presses even a better idea ;-0
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 11:55am
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I never heard it before , thanks Peter for the information !!
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Comment by Romano on October 18, 2012 at 1:01pm -
Yeah I read it today, I would bet my home its another false flag for certain purpose - maybe to bomb Iran!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on October 18, 2012 at 1:10pm
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Hi Romano
I think you are probably right !!
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