EURUSD Daily Outlook 10 Oct 2012
The EURUSD declined strongly yesterday , after losing the key support mentioned previously 1.2990,trades now below 1.2900 levels.
This situation indicates that pull back from 1.3171 might not completed yet ,consolidation from 1.3171 is still in progress as long as stability is below 1.3000 levels, stability below the key resistance1.2885 would extend the consolidation toward 1.2770 , losing the key support 1.2770 would mean that the bullish momentum in short term is lost, Intraday bias would turn to bearish,a clear break below 1.2655 would completely end the bullish phase , and confirm topping at 1.3170, then long term trend should resume toward 1.2000 the rest of the year !!!!
But in return , a clear break above the key resistance 1.2885 would increase the risk toward 1.3000, Above 1.3000 - with daily/4 hour close - will flip bias back to the upside for 1.3070/1.3170 levels.
Fundamental focus today is on Beige Book at 06:00 PM GMT, volatility is suggested in both directions, tomorrow we have Jobless Claims from United States at 12:30 PM GMT, expectations : 368 K, If goes this way , EURUSD would fall, but any release above 368K would flip bias back to the upside !!!
My opinion, the key support 1.2770 is able to contain the consolidation from 1.3171, sooner or later the pair should test the sloping resistance line of the downward channel around 1.3000 - as shown on the daily chart below - before the next move (Up/Down)!!!!
Resistance 1.2885 1.3000 1.3110
Support 1.2770 1.2655 1.2540
Intermediate Trend Direction : Neutral
Major Trend Direction : Downward
Best Regards
Haitham653
-
Comment by Ossbwy on October 10, 2012 at 5:57am -
nice post haitham653.
-
Comment by Haitham653 on October 10, 2012 at 3:18pm -
According to 60 min chart, bullish breakout has been confirmed at 1.2913, an hourly close above this level would confirm the breakout and target 1.3000 levels!!!!
But in return, an hourly close below 1.2860 would give a negative reversal signal , and target 1.2770 levels as shown on the hourly chart below !!!
Wednesday 10 Oct 2012 03:18 PM
-
Comment by Sundaram on October 10, 2012 at 3:29pm -
Agree with you Haitham, 2880s is key support for me, a breach of that, signals temporary retrace.
However 2840 could be difficult to crack. I am looking for a daily close around 2950s.
-
Comment by Romano on October 10, 2012 at 4:21pm -
Mr. Haitham, how come you see breakout already? Or you mean your moving average? regards
-
Comment by Haitham653 on October 10, 2012 at 4:33pm
-
Yes my moving average....an hourly close above the recent high 1.2913 is indeed to confirm the breakout,stability below 1.2913 followed by a break below the recent support would mean false bullish breakout then strong bearish move is suggested at the opposite direction !!!
-
Comment by Haitham653 on October 10, 2012 at 5:06pm
-
An hourly close above 1.2913 with H1 RSI break above 60 is strong bullish signal !
An hourly close below 1.2860 with H1 RSI break below 40 would bring massive bearish move, If this scenario happens , we might see some pause - small correction - around 1.2840/20 before heading toward 1.2770 !!!
-
Comment by Haitham653 on October 11, 2012 at 7:54am
-
So far , no change in my view , the pair closed yesterday at 1.2858, below the key resistance 1.2885 and added more negative pressure , add to that, strong pressure on the 60 min chart, sudden and strong drop is suggested as long as the pair trades below 1.2913 , to get rid of this negativity on smaller time frames , the pair needs to overcome 1.2913 first !!!
Anyway, looks like the market is waiting for jobless claims from United States today, only negative data from U.S would help the pair overcome 1.2913 , but If things go as expected EURUSD would fall strongly !!!
Support and resistance levels for today :
Resistance 1.2885 1.3015 1.3140
Support 1.2755 1.2630 1.2500
Regards
-
Comment by Haitham653 on October 11, 2012 at 11:25am
-
Most likely this rise for EURUSD is fake , the pair is testing the key resistance 1.2885, today we have important news from United States, expectations with USD , add to that real problems stat to appear in EURO zone.....(Debt Crisis)
I see strong bearish move for the EURO but strong volatility is expected before the big fall..
Any way to minimize risk , If you wanna short the pair , make your stop at 1.2930, If your stop hit, sell once again around 1.3000 with stop at 1.3030/40....
Don't buy the pair below 1.2820, losing this level would bring massive bearish move ....
Bulls will back to game only with - daily/weekly- close above 1.3000 ...
Regards
-
Comment by Romano on October 11, 2012 at 11:36am
-
for now 3025 is my target, and its strong double bottom down there too, what u think mr. Haitham? thanks
-
Comment by Haitham653 on October 11, 2012 at 12:12pm
-
Bullish breakout on the 4 hour chart at 1.2934, 4 hour close above this level would challenge 1.3000 levels strongly !!!! But in return 4 hour close below 1.2840 would increase the risk toward 1.2700 levels....
Photos
ChartAccess 20% OFF
© 2013 Created by FXstreet.
You need to be a member of FXstreet.com Forex Social Network to add comments!
Join FXstreet.com Forex Social Network