EUR/USD Outlook (06 – 10 June 2011)

Resistance: (1.4750) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4885), the next levels are (1.5015) and (1.5145)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4750

Support :( 1.4500) main, where correction is is possible, break would test (1.4375), the next levels are (1.4245) and (1.4110)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4500)...

The neutral zone is between (1.4500 - 1.4750) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and 240 min.

The pivot level for this week is (1.4626)..

 

EUR/USD Outlook (08 June 2011)

Resistance (1.4723) main , where correction is possible , break would test (1.4767), the next levels are (1.4811) and (1.4855)..

Support (1.4635)  main , where correction is possible , break would test (1.4591) , the next levels are (1.4547) and (1.4503)...

The neutral zone is between (1.4635 - 1.4723) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and below.

The pivot level for today is (1.4679)..

 

Last week even we witnessed multiple bearish divergences on 4 hour , the pair continued flying toward 1.4700 ...

this week also we have multiple bearish divergences on 4 hour , add to that CCI(14) on daily is diverging the price , the pair will reverse sooner or later..the market is around a strong monthly resistance 1.4750 , only a daily close above 1.4750 - weekly is better - will attack or breach above 1.4940...

 

Today I assume a retracement to the area 1.4635 -1.4591 where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and below. don't buy when the market is falling , wait for a buy signal above this level then go long your target around or below 1.4723...

 

On the other side the pair may test 1.4565 , it may pullback toward 1.4723 but an hourly close below 1.4565 may test 1.4500/375/245/110 ......

Also a 4 hour close below the neck line 1.4557 will activate the divergences on 4 hour  and it may lead for a strong bearish move..toward or below 1.4375..

 

Trend Direction is Upward , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is above 1.4468 , a daily close below this level may weak the uptrend and lead for bearish correction towards 1.4250/100..

 

Recommendations: Upon the charts and the explanation posted above , my recommendation is selling the pair with a four hour closing below  1.4557 targeting 1.4375 & 1.4110 , stop loss at 1.4665..

 

Best Regards

Haitham653

Views: 21

Tags: Dollar, EUR/USD, EURO, EURUSD

Comment by Yasser on June 8, 2011 at 8:42am
Thanks Haitham good to have you back online.Yasser
Comment by Yasser on June 8, 2011 at 8:48am
Haitham how do you see the euro play out for tomorrow the ECB rate decision do you see it being bought up for a pump and dump move . I was thinking of a scale in approach buy at 1.4620 and then again at 1.4570 and lower if it goes to 1.4530 level . All this before the ECB rate decision to exit before the decision hoping it will rise.Whats your opinion. Yasser
Comment by Haitham653 on June 8, 2011 at 9:16am

First of all nobody can exactly expect the fundamental news , all options are available !!!

The pair may touch 1.4755 then droooooooooooooop !!!

 

On the 4 hour chart posted above , the pair is forming a strong bearish pattern , I'd like to wait for

1- break below the neckline 1.4557

2- break below the bullish trend line.

3- RSI , break below the 50 line .

or if you wanna more strong bearish confirmation ?!!

Wait for a 4 hour close below EMA 50 , look for the low of the candle that closed below EMA 50 , its low is our (support) breakout entry , sell with another close below its support...

 

For buyers....I know trend is your friend , but the bullish trend below 1.4940 is weak , add to that it's showing lots of weakness on 4 hour , CCI on daily is diverging the price...

 

As I said in the weekly report 2 days ago , a break above 1.4750 will test/break 1.4940 , a break above 1.4940 will confirm that the uptrend from 1.2874 (10 Jan 2011), has resumed and next target would be around 1.5500 area...otherwise the market is mixed and all options are available !

Comment by Yasser on June 8, 2011 at 9:25am
Thanks Haitham, makes sense to wait for the break below.Yasser
Comment by Haitham653 on June 8, 2011 at 2:00pm

MACD on 60 min chart , bearish divergence , already has broken below the zero line , the market may test 1.4650 then it may drop to 1.4550/500.

As an intraday trader ....Don't you ever trade against MACD on 60 min (remember this golden rule)...be-careful o long !

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