EUR/USD Daily Outlook 07 July 2011

The EUR/USD went down strongly yesterday and breached below the major support level 1.4400 towards 1.4285 ?!!

will the pair continue falling or strong pullback on the horizon ?!!

let's take a quick look to the daily chart ?!!

Yesterday , the pair closed below EMA 50 , its low 1.4285 , what is this supposed to mean ?!

It means we have these options:

1- The pair will try to break - close - below 1.4285 , if it does , then 1.4100/1.3968 on the horizon !

2- If it does fail to break below 1.4285 , strong pullback on the horizon towards 1.4395/1.4466 , then

we need to evaluate pair's activities on 4 hour and 1 hour chart ,

a- If we have a clear break above 1.4395/1.4466 the next target is 1.4577 before heading towards 1.4720 !

b- If it fails to break above 1.4395/1.4466 then it will test 1.4285 or may be go lower towards 1.4100 ?!!


Note : If we have several daily closes above EMA 50 , it means false bearish move happened and strong move at the opposite direction on the horizon ?!!


Very Important : If you you read my weekly report we have strong monthly support at 1.4265 , may be it's not easy at all to break below this level from the first time , daily / weekly close below this level is supposed to test any of these levels 1.4060/1.3850/1.3640..BUT CCI on daily and on 1 hour suggests a strong bullish move but we need a clear break above 1.4466....

RSI on 1 hour suggests a test to the area 1.4360/1.4395 before falling towards 1.4285/36 but if it fails to decline from this level and breaks above 1.4466 , means false breakout and strong bullish move towards 1.4720 on the horizon !!!


Remember : today we have important news from EURO and U.S , the ECB will be released at 12:45 PM GMT , it supposed to take the EURO down , from U.S we have Jobless claims at 01:30 PM GMT , it supposed to take the EURO up BUT I think the most important events will come tomorrow , we have Employment Situation from U.S , it will be released at 01:30 PM GMT , it supposed to push the EURO up strongly , I guess the pair will make its big move tomorrow not today ?!!


Weekly support and resistance levels: (04 Jul - 08 Jul 2011)

Resistance: (1.4720) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4880), the next levels are (1.5040) and (1.5200)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4720

Support :( 1.4405) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4245), the next levels are (1.4085) and (1.3925)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4405)...

The neutral zone is between (1.4405 - 1.4720) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and 240 min.

The pivot level for this week is (1.4560)…

 Weekly :use 1 hour and (4 hour ..recommended).

Above 1.4720 very bullish trend..

Between 1.4560 - 1.4720 light bullish trend.

Between 1.4405 - 1.4560 light bearish trend..

Below 1.4405 very bearish trend..


Trend Direction is Downward , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is below1.4410,technical targets are around 1.4250 and 1.4060 ,  a daily close above this level may lead for a bullish move towards 1.4550/1.4720 levels…


Recommendations : Upon the chart and the explanation posted above , my recommendation is buying the pair with an hourly closing above 1.4466 targeting 1.4580 and 1.4720 , stop loss 100 pips below your entry OR selling the pair with a daily closing below 1.4285 targeting 1.4060 and 1.3850 stop loss 100 pips above your entry !!


Best Regards


Thursday 07 July 2011 06:23 AM


Views: 46

Comment by Haitham653 on July 7, 2011 at 7:08am


CCI (20) on 60 min chart has already breached above the 100 line , signing a light bullish trend for today , the pair is supposed to test the area around EMA 50 - currently 1.4380 - also the pair is supposed to range today between 1.4390/1.4290 so I recommend to wait for a break below 1.4285 or above 1.4466..

Comment by Haitham653 on July 7, 2011 at 8:01am
the last 1 hour CCI declined and closed below the -100 , means we have range market , the pair may pullback towards 1.4340...
Comment by SAAJITH GANGA on July 7, 2011 at 2:46pm
EUR/USD Its already done the pull back and reach above the target you told.Any more updates in EUR/USD today?
Comment by SAAJITH GANGA on July 7, 2011 at 2:48pm
Breaking above 1.4370  can go up more ? If yes, what level we can expect today and tomorrow?
Comment by Haitham653 on July 7, 2011 at 3:13pm

So far , an hourly close above 1.4369 may test 1.4466 soon.if it fails to close above 1.4369 and close below 1.4360 , it may decline towards 1.4300 level .if we have a daily close above 1.4366 -EMA 50-  , the pair may move 300/500 pips up..

RSI already confirmed one of the strongest divergence(s) on 1 hour chart , I don't recommend to short any more, I'll wait for the daily close ,also upon market's move the next coming hours I'll tell the options that we have tomorrow morning ?!!

Comment by Haitham653 on July 7, 2011 at 8:50pm

MACD and OsMA (12.26.9) , RSI(14) and CCI(20) on 1 hour chart Bullish Divergence ?!!

OsMA(12.26.9) RSI(14) and CCI(20) on 4 hour chart Hidden Bullish Divergence ?!!

Remember : we have strong buy entries below/around the monthly support 1.4265, I think only god can take the EURO below this level during July ?!!! BUT if it does break , it means a disaster happened in the EURO zone and the pair may drop 500/1000 pips ?!!

BUT I can smell the monthly resistance 1.4680 on the air , I guess the pair will test it sooooner or later ?!!!

Finally , I see one last drop to 1.4300 before going up again ?!! now the pair is around 1.4360 , I'm waiting for the daily close , we'll continue tomorrow ?!!!



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