EUR/USD Daily Outlook 06 July 2011
The EUR/USD declined as suggested in yesterday's report not only towards 1.4440 level , but also broke below this level and stopped around EMA200 on my 60 min chart and around EMA 50 on my 240 min chart , wait a minute , let's explore the picture a little bit !!!
The bullish breakout on daily was confirmed by CCI at 1.4551 , so the pair should test 1.4440 / 1.4327 or may be further 1.4236,before going up towards 1.4720 , where the pair is going to stop , let's shift down to the 4 hour and 1 hour !!
CCI on 4 hour confirmed the bearish breakout , it suggests now a test to the area 1.4458/1.4498 before falling towards 1.4327 , RSI on 1 hour also gave us one of the strongest breakouts , it suggested a test to the area 1.4440/1.4458 before falling towards 1.4327 BUT..
I prefer waiting for a bullish pattern on 1 hour chart , any reversal pattern , ex bullish divergence , a break above the bearish trend line and so on , then I'll go long or if the pair flies today , I'll wait for a clear break above 1.4560...
Anyway , keep in mind that we have strong support around EMA50 on daily - currently around 1.4370 - but if you like to short the pair I'd like to see a daily close below 1.4428 or at least a four break below 1.4400 , it supposed to open too many doors to test 1.4250 level!!!
Weekly support and resistance levels: (04 Jul - 08 Jul 2011)
Resistance: (1.4720) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4880), the next levels are (1.5040) and (1.5200)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4720
Support :( 1.4405) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4245), the next levels are (1.4085) and (1.3925)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4405)...
The neutral zone is between (1.4405 - 1.4720) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and 240 min.
The pivot level for this week is (1.4560)…
Weekly :use 1 hour and (4 hour ..recommended).
Above 1.4720 very bullish trend..
Between 1.4560 - 1.4720 light bullish trend.
Between 1.4405 - 1.4560 light bearish trend..
Below 1.4405 very bearish trend..
Trend Direction is Upward , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is above1.4428,technical targets are around 1.4750 and 1.4940 , a daily close below this level may lead for a bearish move towards 1.4350/1.4250 levels…
Recommendations : Upon the chart and the explanation posted above , my recommendation is observing trading today and following the daily updates for more confirmations !
Best Regards
Haitham653
Wednesday 06 July 2011 06:06 AM
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Comment by Haitham653 on July 6, 2011 at 6:33am -
Very Important :
Since we have bullish breakout on daily , a bearish one on 4 hour and 1 hour , the pair may test any of these levels 1.4440/1.4327/1.4236 , so I'll wait for any bullish reversal pattern around these levels on 4 hour / 1 hour OR I'll wait for a bullish breakout on 4 hour or at least 1 hour ,once the bullish breakout confirmed on 4 hour/1 hour , I'll go long at the nearest support level !!!
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Comment by Yasser on July 6, 2011 at 7:01am -
Thanks Haitham, just got a nice drop on euro. Will wait for the update to try a long on the euro.
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Comment by nader on July 6, 2011 at 7:16am -
Good Morning Haitham and Yasser.
Haitham your updates are perfect, i wait for it every morning.
I am still out waiting to see the bullish breakout
Thank you
Nader
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Comment by Haitham653 on July 6, 2011 at 7:18am
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MACD ,CCI and RSI , signs of bullish divergence on 1 hour chart - not completed yet - the pair now should breach below yesterday's low 1.4395 , If this scenario happens , especially with stability above EMA 50 on daily around 1.4370 ...then we have a good setup for long entry !!!
this scenario may happen the next 24/48 hours ...
let's wait and see !!!
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Comment by Yasser on July 6, 2011 at 7:35am
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Morning Nader, trading is lonely so nice to talk to ppl here. Haitham's analysis is very helpful. Hope you make good pips today.
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Comment by Yasser on July 6, 2011 at 7:37am
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Haitham. we have broken yesterdays low in euro we are approaching the 200ema on 4 hr . Looks like we are heading lower
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Comment by Richard on July 6, 2011 at 8:59am
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so were do we look to buy eur/usd
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Comment by Haitham653 on July 6, 2011 at 9:10am
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so far , as long as the pair is trading in this range around 1.4350/1.4370 , we may go long with an hourly close above 1.4466, but I don't think the pair able to move that far today , it may pullback towards 1.4390 to slide again !!
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Comment by Yasser on July 6, 2011 at 9:13am
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what is the target for shorts. 14327 secondly does this change our near term bullish trend and targets 1.4250 area.
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Comment by Haitham653 on July 6, 2011 at 9:23am
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the first target for short is around 1.4370 EMA 50 on daily , but CCI on daily suggested a test to 1.4327 or may be further 1.4236...the bullish scenario on daily will remain valid in short term as long as CCI (20) on daily is above - 100 line , also stability above the zero line may lead for a strong and sudden bullish move any moment ?!!
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