EUR/USD Daily Outlook 05 July 2011

The EUR/USD declined this morning towards the support level 1.4440 affected by the negativity of momentum indicators on 1 hour chart , MACD ; bearish divergence , RSI broke below the trend line and below the 50 line , CCI breached 2 times below -100 while was unable to breach above the +100 , the meaning :

This could be one of the 2 options:

1- This is normal correction , the pair is testing the support level (1.4447/1.4467) - buy zone- before pulling back towards 1.4550 , a clear break above this level would take us towards 1.4720..

2-The pair almost ready to break below 1.4447/1.4467 , a break below this level would test 1.4400 , a clear break below the last one , may test these levels 1.4328/1.4236/1.4155...

By checking the 4 hour chart , we still in upward trend , but the problem is that ,B,Band is not expanding yet , so ..we may witness a strong move at the opposite direction , I'd like to see the pair below 1.4400 or above 1.4550 finally it's up to you !!!


Weekly support and resistance levels: (04 Jul - 08 Jul 2011)

Resistance: (1.4720) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4880), the next levels are (1.5040) and (1.5200)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4720

Support :( 1.4405) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4245), the next levels are (1.4085) and (1.3925)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4405)...

The neutral zone is between (1.4405 - 1.4720) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and 240 min.

The pivot level for this week is (1.4560)…

 Weekly :use 1 hour and (4 hour ..recommended).

Above 1.4720 very bullish trend..

Between 1.4560 - 1.4720 light bullish trend.

Between 1.4405 - 1.4560 light bearish trend..

Below 1.4405 very bearish trend..


Since this week pivot 1.4560 is between the monthly pivot 1.4475 and the monthly resistance 1.4680 we have a light bullish trend , the pair may test/ stop around 1.4680 this week !!!


 Trend Direction is Upward , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is above1.4410,technical targets are around 1.4750 and 1.4940 ,  a daily close below this level may lead for strong bearish move towards 1.4000 levels…


Recommendations : Upon the chart and the explanation posted above , my recommendation is observing trading today  and following the daily updates for more confirmations !


Best Regards


Tuesday 05 July 2011  06:54 AM


Views: 1179

Comment by Haitham653 on July 5, 2011 at 7:10am

According to 1 hour chart , CCI suggests a test to the area around 1.4490/1.4505 before pulling back towards 1.4440...

A break above 1.4490/1.4505 would test/ break 1.4550!!


Tuesday 05 July 2011 07:10 AM

Comment by Yasser on July 5, 2011 at 7:59am

Hello Haitham. I was looking for a long at 1.4440-50 but never got there and this break now too looks like it wont get to 1.45 we will see. Euro has been quite bearish all day in asia today. What do you make of this . Would you relong 1.4440 or wait for price action.

Comment by Haitham653 on July 5, 2011 at 8:19am

Hello Yasser ..

So far we have a light bearish trend in nearest term confirmed by CCI , add to that MACD is negative , we have a bearish divergence , also MACD is below the zero line , now the pair is going to test 1.4490/1.4505 , if it fails to pullback from this level and break above it , it may break/test 1.4550/60...but if it pulls-back from 1.44490/1.4505 it will test/break 1.4440 ?!!

As I said I recommend to wait below 1.4400 or above 1.4550/60 and finally it's up too !!!

Comment by Richard on July 5, 2011 at 9:06am
hi do u forcast usd/jpy were do u think the price will go in neartime
Comment by Haitham653 on July 5, 2011 at 9:32am
According to the daily chart of USD/JPY , the pair is testing the resistance level on daily 81.26 - high of 28 June 2011- if this level is taken out -  daily close - a bearish correction towards the area 80.55/80.25 is on the horizon before pulling back towards 82.20/82.70 , if the marker rallies above 82.70 another rally towards 85.50 is suggested ?!!
Comment by Richard on July 5, 2011 at 9:36am
okay thank u sir
Comment by Yasser on July 5, 2011 at 9:56am
Haitham any update on euro we went to the 14490-145 area and dropped to 14465 and now right in the middle. Whats the next move we have not reached 14440 also
Comment by Haitham653 on July 5, 2011 at 12:15pm

I've forgot something about USD/JPY

If the market fails to break above 82.26 , then it will keep moving sideways between 82.00 level and 80.00 level..

Comment by Haitham653 on July 5, 2011 at 7:53pm

Bearish breakout has been confirmed on 60 min chart at 1.4402 , if this level is taken out - not necessary - then a bullish correction towards the area between 1.4440/1.4458 on the horizon before falling towards 1.4327


Tuesday 05 July 2011 07:53 PM

Comment by Yasser on July 6, 2011 at 3:10am
Thanks Haitham, Waiting for your updates


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