As I said few days ago,this is not the time to resume the down trend , I still believe the pair would go up strongly till the elections on April 2012..
Anyway as shown on the daily chart above , we still have some bullish momentum and I think the pair didn't top yet , we need to keep an eye on 1.2975, a daily close below this level means the bullish correction of 1.4245/1.2625 has ended at 1.3485 and the pair should break below 1.2625 very easy, as long as the level 1.2975 holds , any bearish move above this is vulnerable and strong pullback is expected ...
Let's shift down to the 4 hour chart below:
It's obvious that EMA 50 is still above EMA 200, also look to the long bullish candle that closed above EMA 200 & EMA 50, Its high-1.3242- is our breakout level, the next candle closed above this level , which is supposed to open too many doors to test at least 1.3335 before heading towards 1.3485 ?!
The bullish breakout is valid as long as we have 4 hour close above 1.3177, a break below this level is supposed to lead for massive bearish move towards 1.3000 levels..
Don't forget RSI and MACD on 4 hour are giving us a strong reversal signal !!!
The last chart that I'd like to discus tonight is the 30 min chart:
but it found strong resistance around 1.3100, losing 1.3165 , eliminate any bearish face on 30 min chart , this pattern turns to be a bullish reversal , so selling the pair above 1.3165 is risky toooo much !!
Recommendations :Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is buying the pair around 1.3255 targeting 1.3335 & 1.3425 stop loss with a 4 hour closing below 1.3177 OR selling the pair with a 4 hour closing below 1.3177 targeting 1.3080 & 1.3000 , stop loss above 1.3240..
Thursday 08 Mar 2012 06:51 PM