EURUSD "Bullish Breakout" 08 Mar 2012
Hello everyone..
As I said few days ago,this is not the time to resume the down trend , I still believe the pair would go up strongly till the elections on April 2012..
Anyway as shown on the daily chart above , we still have some bullish momentum and I think the pair didn't top yet , we need to keep an eye on 1.2975, a daily close below this level means the bullish correction of 1.4245/1.2625 has ended at 1.3485 and the pair should break below 1.2625 very easy, as long as the level 1.2975 holds , any bearish move above this is vulnerable and strong pullback is expected ...
Let's shift down to the 4 hour chart below:
It's obvious that EMA 50 is still above EMA 200, also look to the long bullish candle that closed above EMA 200 & EMA 50, Its high-1.3242- is our breakout level, the next candle closed above this level , which is supposed to open too many doors to test at least 1.3335 before heading towards 1.3485 ?!
The bullish breakout is valid as long as we have 4 hour close above 1.3177, a break below this level is supposed to lead for massive bearish move towards 1.3000 levels..
Don't forget RSI and MACD on 4 hour are giving us a strong reversal signal !!!
The last chart that I'd like to discus tonight is the 30 min chart:
According to RSI on 30 min chart, the pair was supposed to resume the down trend from 1.3165...
but it found strong resistance around 1.3100, losing 1.3165 , eliminate any bearish face on 30 min chart , this pattern turns to be a bullish reversal , so selling the pair above 1.3165 is risky toooo much !!
Recommendations :Upon the chart and the explanation posted above; my recommendation is buying the pair around 1.3255 targeting 1.3335 & 1.3425 stop loss with a 4 hour closing below 1.3177 OR selling the pair with a 4 hour closing below 1.3177 targeting 1.3080 & 1.3000 , stop loss above 1.3240..
Best Regards
Thursday 08 Mar 2012 06:51 PM
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 8, 2012 at 8:35pm -
Below the 30 min chart, I said found resistance around 1.3100 , sorry for this mistake , I was in hurry , I meant found support around 1.3100 not resistance...
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 8, 2012 at 9:52pm
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Very important:
1- A clear break above 1.3365 is supposed to eliminate the bearish scenario and the pair may pass 1.3485 easily..
2- Pulling back from 1.3335 may test 1.3177...
3- Losing 1.3177 would test 1.3030/1.2975...
4-As long as the level 1.2975 holds, the medium term trend is sideways/bullish, losing 1.2975 will turn the medium trend to bearish and the pair may test 1.2625...
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 9, 2012 at 7:23am
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To keep the bullish trend intact, EMA 50 on 4 hour - 1.3235 - must hold , now the pair is testing EMA 50, this is normal but 4 hour close below this level is an alarm for unknown move ( direction), also remember 4 close below 1.3177 means false bullish breakout and strong move is expected at the opposite direction...
Stability with 4 hour close above 1.3235 is supposed to test at least 1.3335 before the next move ?!!
To minimize the risk you may exit any long once we have 4 hour close below 1.3335...
40 min left for the next 4 hour close...
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Comment by sowMa on March 9, 2012 at 7:38am -
Hello Haitham , to close 4 hour candle still 2 hour 30 mins remaining . Here " To minimize the risk you may exit any long once we have 4 hour close below 1.3335 " i think its below 1.3235 am i right ? ? ?
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 9, 2012 at 7:42am
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Update: less than 20 min left for the next 4 hour close, RSI on 4 hour slipped below 60 level , means possible topping at yesterday's high - 1.3291 , but to confirm the top , 1.3177 should be taken out, from another point 4 hour close above yesterday's high - 1.3291 - is gonna take the pair towards 1.3600 levels...
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 9, 2012 at 7:45am
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No, 15 min left for the next 4 hour close 08:00 AM , I use GMT time , you may watch the hourly chart..the next H1 close..
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 9, 2012 at 8:08am
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The 4 hour has already closed below EMA 50 at 1.3220 , its low 1.3217 , 4 hour close below 1.3217 is gonna lead for strong bearish move but I prefer below 1.3177..
A clear break ( high and low ) on 4 hour above EMA 50 , it would confirm the bottom at 1.3217 or around this level and it should break 1.3291 easily !!!
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 9, 2012 at 8:16am
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According to RSI on 4 hour , the pair found resistance at 1.3291 and it supposed to go down strongly but a test to 1.3240/60 is suggested before testing 1.3177 levels..
As I see the separated levels between up and down are : 1.3291 & 1.3177 , 4 hour close below 1.3177 is gonna take us towards 1.3000 levels, 4 hour close above 1.3291 is gonna take us towards 1.3600 levels...
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Comment by sowMa on March 9, 2012 at 8:22am
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You mean , we have to wait for 4 hour close to take next trade ? ?
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Comment by Haitham653 on March 9, 2012 at 8:46am
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Look to the 4 hour chart and see how 1.3177 is protecting the upward move while 1.3291 is pushing down, I think an explosion is about to happen ...
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