EURUSD bullish ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls

The US Non-farm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity, Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends. Last month raised to 192 K , this month is expected to rise to 210 K . It will be published today at 12 :30 GMT .

How the US Non-farm Payrolls would affect the EURUSD today !!!

Before we start let’s highlight support and resistance levels on the daily chart :

1.3693 , 1.3720 , 1.3773 , 1.3966 , 1.4000 , 1.4080 , 1.4135

  • A reading between 200 K – 250 K will bring  sideways move within 1.3773 -1.3966  range.( buy on dips).
  • A reading between 250 K – 300 K  ( unexpected ) will bring strong bearish move  towards the  1.3720/1.3693 levels.
  • A reading between 150 K – 200 K   will bring bullish move to the 1.3966/1.4000 levels.
  • A reading  below 150 K ( unexpected ) will challenge / expose 1.4000 levels , and open 1.4100 levels..



Views: 464

Comment by SSS Dev on May 2, 2014 at 11:46am

Haitham I hope it  is bullish  and challenge 1.3900 levels 

Comment by forexkid on May 2, 2014 at 5:27pm
  • sir you have posted  as- 
  • A reading between 250 K – 300 K  ( unexpected ) will bring strong bearish move  towards the  1.3720/1.3693 levels.

-  what is this ? it is doing opposit?

Comment by Md.Masudur Rahman on May 2, 2014 at 6:34pm

This was very unexpected.eurusd move up.Is there any special reason behind that.NFP was almost close to 290k. USDJPY down.If u have any analysis plz share  it .

Comment by Michel Miles on May 3, 2014 at 6:37am

This is evidence that banks and hedge funds govern the international finance like they want. 

The analysis technique sometimes, especially in particular historical moments as well as those who are living, have no meaning and do not give any direction. This is the most logical explanation for this event.

Comment by Haitham653 on May 3, 2014 at 8:54am

Despite the strong US NFP 288 K , the pair failed to touch main support at the 1.3773 levels , and rebounded strongly from minor support around 1.3810 levels ....

See the headline once again , I said the pair is bullish ahead of NFP , as the daily chart suggests..

@forexkid , I expected any data above 250 K , to challenge or expose 1.3773 levels but support holds strongly....that's prove the pair is very bullish ,and this is normal , note that sometimes NFP affects the market for several days....so 

Technically : If you back to my last daily forecast , the pair is bullish as long as 1.3773 holds on a  daily closing basis ,  to resume the upside offensive the pair needs to hold above the 1.3876 levels on a daily basis, If 1.3876 holds , it will return to the 1.3773 levels....

Fundamentally : This rise is probably normal correction and the pair might fall next week , but I'd like to go with technical analysis... remember as long as 1.3773 holds on a daily closing basis , I will remain bullish...

Comment by zatconsult on May 3, 2014 at 5:53pm

Hi Haitham 653 , this is my first comment . Following your technical and fundamental analysis for two years , and I can only say : BRAVO !
I learned ( although I am 57 years "young" ) that Forex trading is one huge forest . If I want to find the right path (trend ) , I must not only look at a tree (eg NFP data ....) in the woods . This means that I read your analysis ( monthly, weekly , daily ) very carefully . So, I establish the current trend (weekly and daily ) , analyzes four indicators ( RSI 14 , TMA , ALF and TVI ) and S & R ( daily, weekly , and monthly ) . ALF and TVI only used as a trigger. Last NFP has shown us what it means to power the trend. Technically, this could be seen in that when the EURUSD reached the monthly pivot (about 1.3815 ) , then bounce to the daily pivot ( ca. 1.3873 ) . "">For intraday trading I use the M15 and H1 chart ( attached) .
">Finally , your analysis are not signals for trading, but possible ( I would say very good) scenario , which helps me to define my strategy and tactics .

">All the best,

zatconsult

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