EurO tO CoMe UndeR PresSurE – SelL GoLD - Apr 19

Since last week, news from Europe and Spain continues to dominate the world financial market.  This week we saw successful biding of Spain’s short term bond, but today’s 10-year auction would further indicate investor’s confidence level in Spanish economy.

Spain’s latest doubtful bank loan figures added more to country’s economic gloom, since February’s number suggest that the ratio of bad loans jumped to 18-years high to Euro 143.8 billion to 8.15 pct of the total credit versus from 7.91 pct in January.

I am not sure how many of you took note of my yesterday’s post, I had highlighted that UK’s MPC meeting minutes could be the main driver behind Pound Sterling’s move, which roar passed the 1.60 figure.  

Helped by better employment data, Pound got further boost when dovish Adam Posen did not demand for an increase in the size of QE, which is currently GBP 325 billion.

Today’s US Economic data could give last push to Euro to slide below 1.30 levels, as market should be nervous after French Socialist challenger Hollande’s statement that he will protect sovereignty and re-negotiate German led fiscal pact. Survey suggests that the Socialist challenger is constantly leading by over 7 pct. Spain’s 10-year bond auction will be today’s trend setter. One thing is for sure that there is plenty in Europe to worry about.


Gold @ $ 1641 = Selling strategy to continue around $ 1642-44, as Gold should stay below $ 1649 for $ 1633-35 levels as my new target is $ 1626. However, only break of $ 1652 could delay the down move


Euro @= 1.3122= Sell Euro around 1.3135-40, a break of 1.3080 is required for a test of 1.3040. A break of this level would pave way for 1.2950. However, only break above 1.3180 could risk for minor gain.


GBP @ = 1.6032= There is a minor risk that break of 1.6045 could push Cable towards 1.6070. However, once 1.5975 surrenders Pound would ease and should test 1.5840.


DuLL TradinG DaY AheaD – SeLL GolD oN RisE - ApR 18

Views: 2864

Comment by Farhan Yunus on April 19, 2012 at 5:04am


Given the correlation to the EURUSD and tomorrow morning’s (430 am EST) Spanish auction, don’t dismiss the potential for a test of 9090 before the next bull leg.


EURUSD Trade Idea on Spanish Auction -

A test of 12880-12900 is favored as long as price is below the April high of 13379. 12880-12900 intersects channel support late this week. Watch the level closely as a drop below the channel would be a ‘tell’ that the decline from 13379 is a 3rd wave rather than a C wave. On the other hand, a rebound from that level (or spike below and recovery) would favor a C wave interpretation. A test of 13210/50 may take place before the next bear wave but I believe that being short is the correct position. The ideal short entry would be on a positive reaction to the Spanish auction into 13210/50.

Comment by prem on April 19, 2012 at 6:42am



GBP can be sold around 1.60389 and EUR sell around 1.31191

Comment by spring on April 19, 2012 at 7:12am

"When everybody goes to the same side of the boat, it's logical to take the opposite side of the trade." -

WoW   ! !

Comment by asad rizvi on April 19, 2012 at 7:18am


Mohamad, I did like your idea of expanding business model and to include financial service. Today 1st thing that I did in my office is that I have started working on this project

Millions of traders all over the world are too dependent on chart working because the trader is totally dependent on the program that is available on a 20 inch computer screen that was sold to provide guidance about the next ticker and therefore those millions that have bought the system in a hope all those million will act together that may produce the desired result.

All traders are always looking at the tickers in hope to tell about the next move because of their inability to understand the fundamentals. When an economic even happens, they all look at their computer screens to get some guidance.

When a system makes an error like it happened in NYSE in 2008, all those poor traders had to suffer huge losses because they were totally dependent on electronic trading system and hand no idea about the real world.

I agree that the world is now too dependent on electronic machines and hostage to computer programming.

Another good example is printing of money, which is no more printed or would not be wrong to say humanly not possibly and thus electronically managed.

I am sure scientists and engineers must be working to replace such traders with robots.

Enjoy ! It’s all about perception ;-)

Comment by Marlis Spatzier on April 19, 2012 at 7:37am

Good morning Mr. Rizvi, do you have more information  about your poject.

Thanks a lot


Comment by asad rizvi on April 19, 2012 at 7:44am

Marlis, this is with reference to Mohamad's last night post.It may take some time.Thanks

Comment by asad rizvi on April 19, 2012 at 8:00am

Prem, when  I do not reply my view is unchanged ..GBP top around 1.6080...GL 

Comment by prem on April 19, 2012 at 8:02am

thanks sir


Comment by Ziad on April 19, 2012 at 8:20am
Goodvmorning Mr Risvi. Sold gold @ 1644. Was it a safe entry, thanks
Comment by asad rizvi on April 19, 2012 at 8:25am

GM Mr.Ziad, GOLD @ $ 1644 I think you missed the earlier opportunity. After test lows is likley to stretch towards $ 1646-48. I would sell around those levels.

By the way Spain's auction result will be out in next 7 minutes. Market will remain vilatile..Cheers


You need to be a member of Forex Social Network to add comments!


© 2018   Created by FXStreet.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service


Live Video