I have something like this...
Thick blues defining a 500 pips odd range and we at the top of it.. Top depending how soon or late.. If within Mon-Tues than somewhere around 3480-90 comes in as a top.. Blue dotted are current range play.. Red indicates the first correction point of a drop and a drop under can bring it somewhere around 2950-70...



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Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 7:14am

EJ can continue higher.. EJ 121.46 comes in as top resis but there could possibly be an extension on it.. For today a clear move higher to 3417 points to 3460ish for today and that can take EJ for extension move towards 121.98...


Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 7:30am

Here is a layout on 4 hrs and 30 mins..

3463-66 could be today' range top, 30 mins extension can take it to 3480ish..

3388-90 good supp on dips and a must hold for a move higher..


Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 7:56am

EJ - Extension move possible

Currently we are almost to the 8 hrs range top but looking at euro expeting a blow off here and heading towards extension. Current 8 hrs top on extension is 122.17 but the last 8 hrs for the day where expecting euro to try 3460-70 can take EJ towards 122.40ish and seems to be a safe place to try EJ shorts.. esp if euro does end up holding 3480-90 by 2moro this could be a worth while entry..


Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 9:46am

EURO first true resis 3341 in. .

EJ holding to it's 122.17 initial mark as well. can retrace down to 121.77 b4 trying higher again..

EJ 122-40-50 for today and possibly 122.70-85 range top possible b4 shorts comes into forcing a drop..


Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 10:06am

EURO indeed retrace lvl should be min 3414-17 on this 3441-44 hold out but this indeed looking for a 3464-72 try out.. A day close above 3440ish would be difficult to short into 3490ish as well but been the channel top I still will try it.. With stops small from there onwards, I be mainly banking on a higher R/R.. A move higher to 3500 and I don't want to be short...

Below is one of my response to a trader who is inclined that we have indeed a breakout and we to continue march higher.. While I agree we could, I need a last confirmation on it to yield to that direction.......... My response below..

When and if we close a day higher to 3490-97 in next 2-3 days can we assume the downside is done and we are indeed higher towards 37XX and what intrigues me most for this yr is a tryout of a 1.44-46 lvl... This lvl to most comes in as a neck break of a inv HNS been made in the past 3-4 yrs... Tgts are fresh all time highs obviously for that..
Anyways it's when / if / could clauses.. Back to current lvls, and one thing I have noticed is that a breakout is nothing if it can't provide confirmation.. Again not implying we can't go higher, just stating there are steps to be taken for a move higher and a the same steps to drag lower..
We should post something like 346oish, we than should drag lower as in retrace down t 3424 or so, push back higher to 3470-90 and than drop lower to 3406 on Monday-Tuesday.. If then we can take over to 3500 you have a strong case riding the longs.. else for now selling into closer to 3500 seems better on R/R.. There is a reason why I choose tight s.l and esp in moves like today, for either they are real or last hiccups b4 a fall.. Fall again to me is a correction which means I'm bullish on this pair to move into 1.42-44 in next 3-4 months.. but as of now inclined to see a 5-7 weeks show off b.w 2960-3490......
My contrarian view is as rt as anybody's else and is as wrong as anybody else.. I have a case study based on charts and I for one hardly hesitate in shifting direction.. Sometimes even I don't get to know that I have changed the side.. I go with the charts and they tell me 3440 is a 30 mins resis coinciding with 122.17 on EJ I mentioned.. while I'm still long on euro off 3361 since yesterday, scalp short on EJ triggered at 122.17 been the 8 hrs current top.. If lucky can see a retrace down to121.77 b4 next leg higher.. I had longs on EJ as well but now willing to short rallies and preferring a 122.40-70 to short for the inclining channel can possibly post fresh minor highs after regular intervals and that again would be a good scenario to try shorts out.. 

Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 10:07am

Under 3385-90 it could fall back to the initial breakout point lvl which is declining and comes roughly to around 3324 for today...


Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 11:19am

3361 longs hit tgt at 3461 as well.. Now time to short new minor highs .... short at 3461 in lightly as well... missed EJ shorts by few pips... but cashed the longs off 121.74 at 122.33... waiting for one more minor to be short on it...
EUro willing to sell upto 3480 today..

Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 11:29am

Sharing one of my responses.... Bold highlighted was a question place forward....

I give much credence to breakouts in the direction of the daily trend, especially following 2 weeks of indecision.

This says it all......... and any experience trader would know this... I had a good run past few days catching some big moves esp on EJ...
I'm with you if we are breaking higher to 3490 but will wait pull backs to be in..
Just got me EJ shorts kicked in 122.44.. This is one pair that can take off, if not been halted here..cushion is YEN posted it's channel top high as well.. If yen breaks higher EJ will take off like a rocket.. so a tight leash.........
Matter of fact few short entries at intervals intact with stops and best for me now is to shut things off and chk back later.. not worried too much on euro, it's EJ that can take it to the sky if goes any higher to 122.55-60 within next 1-2 hrs... Euro than could muster a move higher to 1.3490 perhaps taking on 1.35 and plus..
So stops would take care of it..


Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 11:31am

short entries only on euro not on EJ though...

Comment by Tahir Khan on January 25, 2013 at 11:37am

banked hf EJ shorts for 20 pips.. Risk reduced on the beast.. Switching things off and will chk  back laterzzz..



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