EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Thursday (10/13/2011) has turned down from key resistance in the 1.3830 price region. This occurs after more than a week of strongly bullish price action that has formed a significant bullish correction within the context of the new overall downtrend that has been in place since the breakdown below 1.4000 in early September. The 1.3830 resistance level, which was just hit on Wednesday before turning back down in Thursday’s trading, has served as a key support/resistance level in the recent past. If price action continues its bearish stance after having turned down from this resistance, the next key support level to watch to the downside continues to be the 1.3500 price level. In the event of a breakdown below that level, the key longer-term target on a downtrend continuation continues to reside around the important 1.3000 price region.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education