EUR/USD Outlook (18July - 22July 2011)

The EUR/USD opened on a bearish gap and declined strongly this morning ?!!

At this moment the pair is trading around EMA 50 on daily chart around 1.4040 , it may fluctuate around this level before the next destination ?!!

anyway !! It's obvious from the daily chart above that we still under negative pressure , as I said last week in my previous posts , CCI suggested a test to the area 1.4215/1.4335 before heading towards 1.3750 ? which already did last week ?!!

MACD is very bearish and suggests more bearish move at least towards 1.3750 but be-careful ?!!

We have strong support around 1.3750 on Weekly / Monthly chart ?!!!

Now we need to watch the pair around EMA200 on daily , any close below it would support the down-move , a failure to close below it may fluctuate the pair and test EMA 50 on daily ?!!

 

What about the 4 hour chart let's shift for it ?!!

CCI has already confirmed the bearish breakout , 1.4090/1.4220 are on the horizon before falling again towards 1.4000 , from the past week RSI suggested a test to 1.4220/335 before falling towards 1.3750 macd already has made a negative cross below the zero line so what do we need next ?!!

We do need to watch the pair on smaller time frames - 30 min or 60 min - for early entry ?!!

According to 30 min chart now - we have a good setup to short the pair around 1.4080/1.4135 , expected target is around 1.4050 and 1.4000 ?!!

 

Monthly support and resistance levels: (July 2011)

Resistance: (1.4680) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4885), the next levels are (1.5095) and (1.5300)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4680

Support :( 1.4265) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4060), the next levels are (1.3850) and (1.3640)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4265)...

The neutral zone is between (1.4265 - 1.4680) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on daily and weekly.

The pivot level for this month is (1.4475)…

Monthly : use weekly and daily close ;

Above 1.4680 very bullish trend..

Between 1.4475 - 1.4680 light bullish trend.

Between 1.4475 - 1.4265 light bearish trend...

Below 1.4265 very bearish trend...

 

As long As the daily trading is below 1.4265 we have strong bearish trend , technical targets are around 1.3850/640...

 

Weekly support and resistance levels: (18 Jul - 22 Jul 2011)

Resistance: (1.4300) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4450), the next levels are (1.4600) and (1.4750)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4300

Support :( 1.4000) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.3850), the next levels are (1.3700) and (1.3550)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4000)...

The neutral zone is between (1.4000 - 1.4300) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and 240 min.

The pivot level for this week is (1.4150)…

 Weekly :use 1 hour and (4 hour ..recommended).

Above 1.4300 very bullish trend..

Between 1.4150 - 1.4300 light bullish trend.

Between 1.4000 - 1.4150 light bearish trend..

Below 1.4000 very bearish trend..

 

A clear break below 1.4000 would add strong bearish momentum to the pair and may test 1.3700/550 this week ?!!

 

Trend Direction is Downward , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is below1.4280, a daily close above this level may lead for a bullish move towards 1.4550/1.4720 levels…

 

The trading range for this week probably would be between the support level 1.3700 and the resistance level 1.4280...

 

Recommendations : Upon the chart and the explanation posted above , my recommendation is selling the pair around 1.4150 targeting 1.3850 and 1.3700 stop loss above 1.4280 ?!

 

Best Regards

Haitham653

Monday 18 July 2011 09:00 AM

Views: 40

Comment by Joynal Abedin on July 18, 2011 at 9:46am
Thanks for your  nice explanation!! I hope it would work..
Comment by Haitham653 on July 18, 2011 at 5:20pm

Note:

I've said in the main post : " At this moment the pair is trading around EMA 50 " this is wrong what I meant EMA 200 around 1.4040 Not EMA 50 ..!!!

 

By the way , hope you short the pair above 1.4080 , as I said in the main post , you could have achieved at least 40/50 pips...Anyway

Now don't short around this level at the second pullback , it may drop once again around 1.4080 OR it may flyby towards 1.4150 ?!!

Regards

Comment by protrade on July 19, 2011 at 8:14am
Hello Mr.Haitham . How are you? Can we expected for Euro that it will reach on 1.4225 today? Becuase it's over 1.4160 which is a support point in your previous post
Comment by Haitham653 on July 19, 2011 at 9:14am

Update:

Bullish breakout on 30 min chart , the pair is supposed to test 1.4120/40 before pulling back again towards 1.4200 level or higher , if it fails to pullback from 1.4150/20 and breaks below this level , it may decline towards 1.4000 or below..

The pair already has found a new resistance at 1.4193 on 4 hour chart , 4 hour close above this level may change the intra day trend to bullish , if it fails to close above it , it may decline strongly ?!!

Tuesday 19 July 2011 09:14 AM

Comment by Haitham653 on July 19, 2011 at 9:18am
BUT remember as long as the daily trading / close is below 1.4280 we have high opportunity for strong bearish move ?!!
Comment by Haitham653 on July 19, 2011 at 5:43pm

The bullish breakout happened @ 1.4193 on 30 min chart , this level was taken out , so we have strong bullish trend on 30 min chart and below ?!!!

1 hour / 4 hour chart - neutral - the daily is down ?!!!

But remember , when the trend changes , it starts from smaller time frames ?!! a clear break above 1.4220 probably would give us a bullish breakout on 1 hour chart , above 1.4280 on 4 hour ?!!

The pair is hovering now around the pivot level 1.4150 , trading below this level is indeed to keep the down side suggested for this week available ?!!!

To break below 1.4000 level , the pair should decline towards 1.4050/40 then pullback towards 1.4120/50 then decline toward 1.4000/1.3850?!!!

Otherwise , this is maybe a limited bullish move on 30 min chart , or a new start for a new upward trend ?!!!

This is everything , make the right choice ?!!!

Tuesday 19 July 2011  05:42 PM

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