At this moment the pair is trading around EMA 50 on daily chart around 1.4040 , it may fluctuate around this level before the next destination ?!!
anyway !! It's obvious from the daily chart above that we still under negative pressure , as I said last week in my previous posts , CCI suggested a test to the area 1.4215/1.4335 before heading towards 1.3750 ? which already did last week ?!!
MACD is very bearish and suggests more bearish move at least towards 1.3750 but be-careful ?!!
We have strong support around 1.3750 on Weekly / Monthly chart ?!!!
Now we need to watch the pair around EMA200 on daily , any close below it would support the down-move , a failure to close below it may fluctuate the pair and test EMA 50 on daily ?!!
What about the 4 hour chart let's shift for it ?!!
CCI has already confirmed the bearish breakout , 1.4090/1.4220 are on the horizon before falling again towards 1.4000 , from the past week RSI suggested a test to 1.4220/335 before falling towards 1.3750 macd already has made a negative cross below the zero line so what do we need next ?!!
We do need to watch the pair on smaller time frames - 30 min or 60 min - for early entry ?!!
According to 30 min chart now - we have a good setup to short the pair around 1.4080/1.4135 , expected target is around 1.4050 and 1.4000 ?!!
Monthly support and resistance levels: (July 2011)
Resistance: (1.4680) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4885), the next levels are (1.5095) and (1.5300)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4680
Support :( 1.4265) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4060), the next levels are (1.3850) and (1.3640)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4265)...
The neutral zone is between (1.4265 - 1.4680) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on daily and weekly.
The pivot level for this month is (1.4475)…
Monthly : use weekly and daily close ;
Above 1.4680 very bullish trend..
Between 1.4475 - 1.4680 light bullish trend.
Between 1.4475 - 1.4265 light bearish trend...
Below 1.4265 very bearish trend...
As long As the daily trading is below 1.4265 we have strong bearish trend , technical targets are around 1.3850/640...
Weekly support and resistance levels: (18 Jul - 22 Jul 2011)
Resistance: (1.4300) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.4450), the next levels are (1.4600) and (1.4750)…For buyers the bullish zone is above 1.4300
Support :( 1.4000) main, where correction is possible, break would test (1.3850), the next levels are (1.3700) and (1.3550)…For sellers, the bearish zone is below (1.4000)...
The neutral zone is between (1.4000 - 1.4300) where it is recommended to evaluate activities on 60 min and 240 min.
The pivot level for this week is (1.4150)…
Weekly :use 1 hour and (4 hour ..recommended).
Above 1.4300 very bullish trend..
Between 1.4150 - 1.4300 light bullish trend.
Between 1.4000 - 1.4150 light bearish trend..
Below 1.4000 very bearish trend..
A clear break below 1.4000 would add strong bearish momentum to the pair and may test 1.3700/550 this week ?!!
Trend Direction is Downward , the trend will remain valid as long as stability is below1.4280, a daily close above this level may lead for a bullish move towards 1.4550/1.4720 levels…
The trading range for this week probably would be between the support level 1.3700 and the resistance level 1.4280...
Recommendations : Upon the chart and the explanation posted above , my recommendation is selling the pair around 1.4150 targeting 1.3850 and 1.3700 stop loss above 1.4280 ?!
Monday 18 July 2011 09:00 AM