EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 28.02.2013

Second day of consolidation passed with quiet trading and slightly bullish as forecasted. My first LONG EUR target has been reached, and my first LONG GOLD target has been reached too. One thing to remember is that when you go some 15-20 pips + on EUR you have to move your SL at your entry point, so if a reverse happens to eliminate any loss. On gold move SL when you are some 6-7 USD ahead.

Now to the EUR again, after some consolidation EUR has opened the day with bullish moves, it is expected the bullish to continue in the next few hours, then EUR risks a drop to 1.3090 and even below, so be careful when going LONG. I still think that we need a retracement to 1.3250 before attacking 1.3000 level. Currently we are only 150 pips above and that will be not enough to break so important support. If we have a drop now it will reach no more than 1.2950 and we shall have a quick pullback above 1.3000.

So now we are going to look for a better price to sell EUR, and better prices are around 1.3230-50 where we shall face a strong resistance area. On extremely strong impulse we may reach even 1.3280-90, but i don't think it has a great possibility for this.

GOLD has made and upside attempt, but i have warned you in my yesterday's forecast that for restoring the upside there is a long way to go, and any upmove will be just a correction move. So after reaching 1620, the price quickly pulled back to below 1600, where it currently trades. As long as we are above 1585 we may try going long, below 1580 better exit any long-s.

Big moves today are expected with the american session opening, so if we go higher until then ususally 1 hour before american open will start profit taking and pullback, you may use it for scalping too :)

For today:

LONG EUR above 1.3136 SL 1.3120 TP 1.3230-1.3250-1.3280

SHORT EUR below 1.3080 SL 1.3095 TP 1.3030-1.3000-1.2980

LONG EUR above 1.2960 SL 1.2945 TP 1.3030-1.3090-1.3120

LONG GOLD above 1585 SL 1580 TP 1612-1620-1630

SHORT GOLD below 1577 SL 1585 TP 1562-1550

Good luck!

Tags: EUR, GOLD, USD

12 members like this

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 28, 2013 at 5:47am: I forgot to put this SHORT EUR below 1.3260 SL 1.3290 TP 1.3030-1.2950

Comment by momochi on February 28, 2013 at 6:36am: thanks, gold's on the move already

Comment by Konwerska on February 28, 2013 at 7:38am: Thank you for today's tips

Comment by Jasmine C on February 28, 2013 at 7:43am: Hi,

Not so new to FX, but new to this forum and I'm interested in your post. Please please do not take this comment as any sort of criticism. I really concur with your general view of EURUSD. I am just trying to work out what to make of this signal.

You have proposed an entry with a 16pip SL and a near 100 pip TP1. You have also proposed TP2 and TP3.

But clearly there is more to this trade. You have already stated that after a 15-20 pip move we must move our SL. Is that any different to, say, me entering the trade _after_ it has moved those 20pips and placing my SL at the original entry? We both have the same probability of further success, right? So in effect, the first trade was a 15-20pip TP with a 16pip SL? Which is not unreasonable and very achievable.

Suppose we both now find ourselves in this trade. I am fairly certain there will be more stop movement along the way. And depending how nervous we get, and how tight we make that stop, we either make it to TP1 or get stopped out. Then we have a decision at TP1. And so on...

There are just too many decisions to make here. If we are to be as successful as you - you may as well signal an entry with a SL, and then say "await further instructions" because from my experience it is all that stop movement, early profit taking, knowing when to hold for the next TP, etc.. that really defines the successful trader. And that is the hardest part to really convey.

Again, please don't take offence. I am genuinely interested in how one trades these signals.
Thanks

Comment by Jasmine C on February 28, 2013 at 8:06am: Furthermore, if we assume price arrives at TP1, you remove some of your position (leaving some on), move your SL and head for TP2. Is this any different to me entering a trade at that point - with the same SL and TP2? Again, we both have the same probability of success, right? The fact you have money doesn't really affect the probability... I don't think.

And yet, some people would consider my decision to enter a trade at that point (the TP!) as sheer lunacy. And yet they would view your decision to stay in the trade as good trade management.

I suppose I am struggling to see the difference between these two situations.

Thanks again. And good luck today! I'm rooting for you and those price movements!! :-)

Comment by arturitofx on February 28, 2013 at 10:38am: I touched SL at 1,32 the retractment to 1'309 achieved. It's the momento to entre long eur or wait to the 1,136 Again? (Before i touched SL from 1,45 ... :,(

Comment by arturitofx on February 28, 2013 at 10:44am: I wanted to say of we should wait the 1,3136 to entre long or from now at 1,311???

I forgot to tanks you!!! (I lime your forecasts, are very accurate and early)

Regards

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 28, 2013 at 12:56pm: @ Jasmine - Dear Jasmine, thank you for your calculations, in fact everybody has his own trading strategy. Most traders make one and same mistake and it is when they have profit they wait for it to became bigger and bigger, but suddenly all profit is cleared and the price goes against the trader and he waits for it to bunce back - but no, it never cames back and finally profit has turned into loss. Trailing stop sometimes leads to early exit of the market, but guarantees no loss, once set. Of course the trailing stop may be in your mind, and there you can change it as you like. The values i am giving are for reference only. Noone can predict what will happen at any moment. So if the price goes over 40 pips against you, better exit. Same on GOLD if the price goes 6-7 USD against you, exit as soon as possible.

Comment by Konwerska on February 28, 2013 at 1:13pm: I agree better to have a small profit than loss

Comment by Jasmine C on February 28, 2013 at 2:12pm: I'm afraid i cannot agree with that statement.

a trader takes a position and in doing so accepts a certain risk in return for an anticipated reward. if price goes against her, she is unlikely to close that trade until her stop is hit - the risk she accepted in taking the position.

and yet, when price moves in her favor only rarely will she see that trade through to her profit target - as you just stated, you would prefer a small profit than see that trade move against you.

so what you end up with are a series of trades where your profit was less than you anticipated, and where your losses were exactly as anticipated. and i don't think that's necessarily a good model.

just my opinion. :-)