EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 28.01.2013
EUR rally continues well supported by mr.Draghi's speech at Davos, and the promise that european banks will pay back the money given to them as a financial help. Everything in Europe turns good with a promise only. This is the unique characteristic of the eurozone - if anything goes wrong, tell the markets it will be alright and all are going to believe you, and european leaders are similar to Gods. Over the Atlantic things are not good, but there are signs of stabilizing the house market and unemployment. Last Friday one member has asked for an explanation why the EUR rally continues - here it is:
1.Draghi keeps saying everything in the EU will be soon alright and even he expects a grouth this year
2.ECB doesn't seem to cut the rate in February
3.Banks promised to pay back some money
4.No strikes in Greece or problems with other EU country
5.Unlimited stimulus program in USA
All these increase the risk interest at the markets and noone needs shelters like USD and GOLD. So EUR rally will continue untill one of the above goes wrong. The main target is MA200 @ 1.3520. I think it won't be so easy broken but at first attempt we may do a little spike above it. On Weekly you may clearly see the double top formation with the mid February 2012. Let's see what will happen next month. Strong support now at 1.3170-50.
GOLD as expected fell down, indicators are negative and to turn positive we need a daily close above 1690 and i do not see this to happen soon. Sell below 1670.
For today:
LONG EUR above 1.3460 SL 1.3445 TP 1.3500-20-40
SHORT EUR below 1.3520 SL 1.3540 TP 1.3450-1.3350-1.3250-1.3170
SHORT EUR below 1.3430 SL 1.3450 TP 1.3350-1.3250-1.3170
SHORT GOLD below 1670 SL 1677 TP 1647-1627 and below
LONG GOLD above 1692 SL 1687 TP 1700 and above
Good luck!
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Comment by JimV on January 28, 2013 at 10:54am -
The thing Mr.Vladimir that we do not understand is how and when do fundamentals turn to be significant? What makes the market realise that all this euphoria was made from a single promise and maybe some intervention from japan and switzerland? As a european citizen I can easily say that things aren't going better at all , as unemployment is at it's highest levels and money supply for small businesses that will give growth is at it's lowest levels in most countries of EU. So how can the eur/usd rate go higher with USA improving day after day and EU improving only in sentiment?
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Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 28, 2013 at 11:51am -
That is because of the biggest players in tha market - Bank of America, Deutche Bank, bank of England and some others multi billionares' financial companies. They are moving the market in one or another direction in which to gain the maximum profit, and for us left only following them=
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Comment by JimV on January 28, 2013 at 11:54am
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Thank you mr.vladimir . Maybe that is the greatest lesson a trader should take, not to try stop the train but jump in it...
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Comment by Kevin Henry Ostermey on January 28, 2013 at 3:58pm -
Vladimir, not a good day at all for the EURO/USD pair. Up and down all the time with No clear support or resistance.
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