We have closed the day above 1.3360, but seems that is not enough for the EUR to break 1.3400. Reaching the resistance many of the bulls became uncertain and prefered to wait. We have made a triple top at 1.3400. The major news for today will be the German's IFO business climate. If the release is better we may test the 1.3400 again. I doubt whether EUR will gain enough power to go above 1.3410, and that will be consideres as a fail to break the 1.3404 resistance and if the price after unsuccessful attempt to break 1.3400 returns below 1.3330 - then sell for 1.3130. The IFO may be worse that forecasted, and that will only accelerate the downside movement. Of course the consolidation may continue, but with the last day of the week profit taking and the lack of any other EUR positive news, holding the current high price will be hard enough. So my major advice for today is - look for a better price to sell. Currently (at the moment of writing) all indicators point to the upside on H1, H4, Daily and Weekly.

GOLD has stopped free fall but just for now, after some recovery the fall will contine, daily indicators point to the downside.

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.3410 SL 1.3420 TP 1.3330-1.3250-1.3170-1.3130

SHORT EUR below 1.3320 SL 1.3340 TP 1.3250-1.3170-1.3130 and below

LONG EUR above 1.3360 SL 1.3350 TP 1.3404 and above

SHORT GOLD below 1681 SL 1685 TP 1646 and below

LONG GOLD only above 1690 SL 1687 TP 1700 and above

Good luck!

Views: 1616

Comment by Forexsquare on January 25, 2013 at 7:56am

Nice ,,,i see it reverse 10 pips before entering 1.3420 range 

Comment by JimV on January 25, 2013 at 8:15am

E/U = 1.3418 high , totaly yen driven . If the trend line from the 15th and the 18th of January holds we could see 1.3330 today with a help of a worse than expected IFO and let the downside correction begin.

Comment by Forexsquare on January 25, 2013 at 8:34am
i am agree with @jimV ... worst than expected IFO will driven EU down for correction.. anyway already put my SL on 1.3435 ..im selling from 1.3415 ..
Comment by Gjert Myrestrand on January 25, 2013 at 11:46pm

Someone please explain the logic of EURUSD above 1,3450. It makes no sense when looking at the eurozone´s struggle compared to the US.

Comment by Indy on January 26, 2013 at 2:41am

Hi everyone,

for Gjert I would say you need to look at the usd compared with the other main currencies, not just eur/usd, usd has outperformed almost all currenencies this week except eur. the eur strength may be hard to understand but is the usd situation really that good, spiralling debt, huge budget deficits, no clear plans just huge denial and a desire to kick the can down the road, and a lack of cooperation within the country to address even the most minor disagreements. If you look at long term charts this move could be seen as a return to mean after the initial reaction to the the crisis and an acknowledgement that the situation is being addressed. the real question is 'what is fair value'. And don't forget that devaluation is currently a desired thing for a lot of central banks so in a way the usd was the winner this week and eur was the loser.

I can easily see 1.3850 in the coming weeks, wether it happens or not is a different matter




Comment by Indy on January 26, 2013 at 2:54am

Heres a chart, they say a picture speaks a thousand words

so forget looking for suppport, resistance trend etc, just for now. just look at general movement. the ma is the 200 weekly ema, we have just crossed up. that is not important, if you notice price moves below the ma, then it moves above the ma then below etc. so if someone wants to say price is going to 1.4000, i wouldn't laugh, its well within range and anything can happen in forex..



Comment by Gjert Myrestrand on January 26, 2013 at 12:43pm

Hello Indy, Thanks for the comment. I agree with you that anything can happen in FX. I just feel that good news from the labour market in the US is shrugged off. And the statement from FED that many members wanted to stop the QE this year...shrugged off...but give us some small positive news from the Eurozone and the EUR strengthens tremendously....next week we have another FED rate meeting. I would suppose that the upside in EURUSD will be contained by that. If they repeat the call for stopping QE...we SHOULD see a reaction down in EURUSD....I have a very hard time imagining EURUSD above 1,35 now..but I have definitely been wrong before.


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