Yesterday EUR made a new top @ 1.3308 if you remember some days ago in one of my forecasts i've talked about 1.3310 resistance. So the price of the EUR closed the day at the opening price and formed so called 'gravestone doji'. This candlestick represents a rally that cannot be sustained during the day and the price returned back to the start. This means that somewhere above 1.3300 there are toubles for the bulls. This makes me think that we are forming a top. For now only on Daily the indicators are bullish, all other time frames are in a correction mode. There was a partly profit taking. If we don't go above 1.3275 in the following 14 hours from the time of writing the price will return to 1.3150 at least. I hope some of you have sold EUR around 1.3290-1.3300.

The EUR rally was strongly supported by rating agencies. Greece's rating was raised by 5 levels, something which i cannot understand, because i know Greek people and they won't leave the things like that, they won't allow to be unemployed and to be homeless. Here is the Merkel's mistake. The bank control mechanism won't be implemented until 2014 and for now nothing in the eurozone has changed to the better. As expected EUR makes a final rally for the year and some profit taking will follow. I think this month will end around 1.3000-1.31000 if not below.

We have a support @ 1.3190-1.3200, next is 1.3140-50 and then 1.3115-20. I'm expecting some of these to cap the downside and a new move to 1.3250 to develop which may be the final one.

GOLD found ground around 1660 at the support line starting since the middle of May 2012. This line holds further downside fro 7 months. I hope to hold this time too. Indicators on all time frames are still strongly negative, but as gold traders know well this situation may change at any moment rapidly, so be very careful.

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.3230 SL 1.3245 TP1.3150-1.3120

LONG EUR only on H4 close above 1.3255 SL 1.3230 TP 1.3310-30

LONG GOLD above 1664 SL 1662 TP 1682 

for short GOLD we need to close 2 days in a row below 1660

Good luck!

Views: 1663

Comment by Vikingo on December 20, 2012 at 5:52am

Vladimir, do you think we can get 1.34 this month? or 1.3330 would be a major resistance?

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on December 20, 2012 at 5:58am

of course we can if someone pays Moodys to raise Greece's raiting with 5 levels. At 1.3430 is the Ichimoku border on Weekly. 

Comment by Hammad on December 20, 2012 at 7:06am

Sir Vladimir you've got tons of knowledge :) happy to see you forecasting.

Comment by shahid ramzan on December 20, 2012 at 7:28am

dear valadimir is good anaylisys

Comment by Kezzie on December 20, 2012 at 10:21am

Thanks Vladimir. Great in-depth analysis.

Comment by Rahim A. Khan on December 20, 2012 at 2:57pm

great one!! whats the next stop now sir? as i have few long position on gold from 1663. :( 


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