EUR has reached my first long target and almost second one as the economic data from Germany was better than forecasted. Currently EUR is trading close to minor resistance @ 1.3415-20, there are two more important resistances either of which will stop further upside this week. First is 1.3455 and second is 1.3485. In fact on Daily we can clearly see that a H&S model is developing with neckline 1.3260. Breaking of that support will allow the pair to drop at least 100 pips down and maybe more to 1.3050 for example. I do not see test of 1.3700 again as one member commented yesterday, this is too far optimistic. The EUR price is very overestimated and the situation in the eurozone is not as described as mr.Draghi. I am expecting a drop first to 1.3130 and then to 1.2940 in the following 4-5 weeks. Use the prices above 1.3400 to open a medium term SHORT positions with target at least 1.3000. 

Today also a plenty of economic data both from Europe and USA, so with EUR close to resistance we may expect a dollar recovery if market is disappointed with releases from Germany and France.

Gold is trying to stay above 1600 but it's like to keep stable on the ice. If 1590 is lost the metal will drop at least 50 USD more. Recovery only above 1617.

For today:

same as yesterday as the awful consolidation continues

SHORT EUR below 1.3450 SL 1.3465 TP 1.3360-1.3310-1.3260

LONG EUR above 1.3505 SL 1.3485 TP 1.3610

LONG GOLD above 1617 SL 1613 TP 1636-1645

SHORT GOLD below 1600 SL1604 TP 1688 (better not trade this for now, quick reversals are possible)

Good luck!

Views: 3123

Tags: EUR, GOLD, USD

Comment by MarginCall on February 20, 2013 at 6:44am
Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 20, 2013 at 7:06am

why are you posting that stupid article in here?

Comment by MarginCall on February 20, 2013 at 7:19am
why you not optimistic? Remember when most countries sreaming that their currencies are overvalued, Dragi said that eur is not overvalued. Just my opinion.
Comment by Konwerska on February 20, 2013 at 7:48am

Thank you for a good analysis, I really like to read your descriptions about E / U

Comment by Ravindra Dantla on February 20, 2013 at 8:52am

hi, your forecast is 99% success

Comment by ratheesh kerala on February 20, 2013 at 10:01am

thanks . very helpful... 

Comment by goldynerd on February 20, 2013 at 12:42pm

gold low 1588.67...what do u think bro?

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 20, 2013 at 12:44pm

My positions since 19.02.2013:

LONG @ 1.3340 - closed at 1.3370 +30 pips

LONG @ 1.3355 - closed @ 1.3420 +65 pips

SHORT @ 1.3415 closed @ 1.3370 +45 pips

total: +140 pips

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 20, 2013 at 12:49pm

@goldynerd - i do not see any drop below 1588 if any it will be short lived, watch for recovery very soon to 1625, maybe till the end of the week. Be cautious and place stops when trading gold.

Comment by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 20, 2013 at 5:06pm

First SHORT EUR target has been reached, second may be reached in late american or not reached at all. I am going  to enter LONG around 1.3315-20-30 for tomorrow's european economic data, all is expected to be better and i think EUR will find buyers for 1.3500

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